Australia needs five million EVs on its roads to meet 2035 climate target: Here’s how to do it

On Friday morning, Nationals Leader David Littleproud was on the ABC, riding his favourite hobby horse: Disparaging the ability of Australians to get things done.

He believes that, since no other country has achieved a 100% renewable energy grid, Australia shouldn’t even attempt to do so. He believes that Australians are not smart, ingenious or innovative enough to take a world-leading role in achieving this.

He just banged on about the same old myths regarding baseload power and dismissed our ability to dynamically match supply and demand using the best technology and innovation that Australia and the rest of the world has to offer.

Just wait until he hears about the vehicle electrification target.

To meet Australia’s modest climate goals of reducing emissions by 62–70% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels, Chris Bowen has proposed replacing 5 million ICE vehicles with EVs by 2035. While this is within the range of scenarios modelled by AEMO in their electricity demand forecasts, it is also a challenge that Australia needs to rise to.

To be clear, we are a long way behind the target. Under AEMO’s ‘Step Change’ scenario, which would see 5 million EVs on the road by 2035, we would need to be adding more than 22,000 EVs per month; however, we only achieved 10,000 in August. This figure excludes EVs that age out of the fleet, and some inevitably will.

The government has set the target, so it is up to Australia to innovate solutions that will enable us to achieve a fair, equitable and world-leading transition. There should be no sacred cows here.

Every policy must be examined to determine its potential contribution to achieving the goal. Given the lifecycle of automotive products, this also means we require solutions that are effective immediately or within the next product improvement cycle.

This rules out hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, as there is no mass production of these vehicles and no economic rationale for them. So let’s shelve this dead-end technology.

We also need to take a holistic approach to mobility, reducing multi-car households to single cars and targeting the high-km, high-value applications with the biggest decarbonisation impact. We must also ensure that regional and remote areas can take full advantage of the transition.

What would this look like in practice?

The FBT exemption for novated leases on electric cars has probably had its day. While the exemption has driven EV sales to date, it is probably not the most effective way to incentivise EV uptake.

For example, it benefits those with high incomes and who pay the highest tax rates, but it does not incentivise Uber or taxi drivers to switch, even though they may drive three to four times the distance of a commuter on a novated lease.

Comprehensive road pricing can shape demand. The revenue raised from fuel duty needs replacing, but not in a way that penalises EV drivers. Replace fuel duty and vehicle registration tax with a ‘user pays’ system: the more polluting and heavier your vehicle is, the more you pay per kilometre.

This should apply to EVs as much as to ICE vehicles. We could use this as a lever to encourage people to buy small, light EVs rather than the behemoths we see on the roads today.

Invest in active transport: the best way to reduce vehicle emissions is to not use cars at all, so every local government area (LGA) should be given a statutory duty to prioritise delivering safe and convenient active transport options for their communities.

This would liberate people from the burden of car ownership. Active transport is not just about personal mobility; look at any European city and you will see how much package delivery is completed by pedal power.
Invest in public transport to make it a viable alternative for more people.

Invest in public transport to make it a viable alternative for more people. Take a look at how Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan use value capture to unlock the value above stations and train lines and use it to fund infrastructure.

It starts with mandating that all new developments contribute to providing public transport options, as well as parking. But we can be much more creative than that.

Invest in regional areas. Due to the slowdown in transmission construction, a lot of renewable energy is being wasted in regional areas because it cannot reach the capital cities. We can find ways to use this energy to power the cars, utes, tractors and trucks in regional Australia.

It’s not just about cars — Australia is uniquely dependent on trucks, which cover high distances. Electrifying trucks would have a significant impact due to their heavy utilisation. The infrastructure can be installed relatively easily, especially along our major truck routes, and there are great options for charging or swapping.

But let’s not forget rail either. It lost its electrified freight options last century, but could rapidly regain them, as well as the sea freight that connects us to the rest of the world.

Currently, no major Australian freight port offers shore power to ships, and none have anything other than vague platitudes about possibly examining the idea before 2050 in their future strategy. Plugging large ships in when they dock is a quick and easy way to reduce not only carbon emissions, but also air pollution caused by one of the dirtiest fuels used by any vehicle.

I could go on, but it’s time to roll up our sleeves and get to work. We’ve got some tough choices to make, but no time to waste. If we get on with it, we can build a better, cleaner and more prosperous Australia. David Littleproud and his cronies want to hold us back, negate us and do us down. Australia has got this — get on board or get out of the way!