Forecasts for the uptake of electric vehicles in Australia have been slashed dramatically – and the impact of the federal government’s signature vehicle emission standards, which allows car makers room to push hybrid options, have been blamed – to the delight of the big Japanese car makers.
The latest 10-year outlook by the Australian Energy Market Operator, which includes forecasts for consumption and supply over the coming decades, now predicts that there will be four million EVs on Australian roads by 2034, consuming around eight terawatt hours (TWh) a year from charging from the grid.
That four million forecast would account for around one quarter of all residential passenger vehicle, but it is down significantly from the forecast of seven million EVs made just last December.
AEMO says the EV forecast has been “tempered” by new data that reflects longer vehicle lifetimes – which means owners of petrol and diesel cars may be slow to buy new cars and make the switch to electric.
But it also cites the impact of the federal government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), which was legislated in May 2024 and will take effect from January 1 next year.
It says NVERS will provide flexibility to the big manufacturers in how they reduce emissions, and it notes many of them will now choose to do so through mild hybrids and plug in hybrids, rather than full battery electric cars.
NVERS was contested heavily by the legacy car industry, and the federal Coalition and conservative media, and there was concern that the concessions made would slow the hoped-for transition to EVs. Japanese car makers, in particularly, fought furiously against the proposal, as they have in other countries.
Their efforts appear to have paid off. Perhaps the most stunning change in the AEMO forecasts is the revised outlook for plug in hybrids (PHEVs) – one of the favoured technologies of the legacy car makers because it does little to change their business model that is dependent on engine repairs, and does not do so much for cutting emissions.
AEMO says the previous forecasts were for a declining share of PHEVs, and declining overall numbers. But these have been dramatically revised, as per the table below, which predicts the number of PHEVs on the rad to grow to more than 350,000, with the biggest jump in the next decade, rather than a reduction in numbers.
“The change in forecast values reflect revised buying preference assumptions for some consumers, considering battery range anxiety, limited public charging infrastructure, and limited model availability for some purposes
such as towing heavy loads,” it says.
You could probably also blame another of other factors on this – the pubic scare campaign and misinformation about EVs, the abject failure of unreliable Tritium DC fast chargers in giving the public confidence about range anxiety, and the influence of the big Japanese car makers led by Toyota, Mazda and Honda.
The two electric only brands that operate in Australia – Tesla and Polestar – have quit the main car maker lobby, the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries – but their sales have also been impacted in recent months.
Both have been affected by the increased competition from lower cost Chinese car makers, Tesla could also be hurt by the outrage caused by CEO Elon Musk with his comments on X, while Polestar only has one model on offer, the Polestar 2, although it is about to release the Polestar 3 on the Australian market.
The upshot of all this means that the so-called “saturation levels” of EVs in Australia – where it reaches 99 per cent of fleet share – have also been pushed back, by five years to 2055 rather than 2050.
Giles Parkinson is founder and editor of The Driven, and also edits and founded the Renew Economy and One Step Off The Grid web sites. He has been a journalist for nearly 40 years, is a former business and deputy editor of the Australian Financial Review, and owns a Tesla Model 3.
Dealership maintenance revenue stream maintained…….. what’s not to like ?.
Interesting how this site displays the voting.
It could be 20 + and 16 – but only the net result shown, implying no opposing opinions.
I agree it is not as useful.
Perhaps the objective is to hide strong differences of opinion?
I object to this kind of divisive, binary reductionism. They should include a third category.
Neutral.
Perfect for the diminishing number of drivers who can use manual transmissions.
Very depressing. Mis n disinformation unfortunately rules. FUD.
No.
It’s pandering to lobby groups. The fear is from govt vote counters.
An unsurprising repeat of the 90s where in the US, GM recalled and trashed all of its EV1’s. The usual big guns came out and squished the whole thing, but then offered short term, the hybrid. Interesting turn of events: the Japanese got so worried about this they went 110% into developing the hybrids we know so well today but meanwhile the Americans dropped that whole idea & went back to what they were doing previously. So the whole thing was a ruse really, to maintain the status quo. Back to the future.
See the doco, ‘Who Killed the Electric Car” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Killed_the_Electric_Car%3F
https://www.hagerty.com/media/automotive-history/gm-ev1-true-inside-story/
They forcibly removed electric cars from owners who were happy with their purchase.
What sort of 3rd world countries do that?
They weren’t purchased, they were leased, which is why they could take them back. But nothing really surprises me with big auto.
Thank you for the correction.
I have no objection to being educated.
I was working from memory of the doco seen years ago.
Israel ?
However much I might agree with you, this is not the right forum. Australia is ostensibly a pro Israel nation and they are sensitive to criticism. The last thing anyone should be doing is attracting the ire of Mossad. I’m in enough trouble with the moderators after my comments about the weasels in charge of Canada.
The missing piece here is a continued tightening of the NVES from 2030 to 2035 with a 2035 target of zero g/km.
The clue here is the ‘NV.’
Old vehicles can carry on until they die.
Yes, it has continued tightening but it also has frequent reviews at any of which the tightening can be stalled. It is far from assured that it will keep going.
Another excellent article that illustrates the weakness of every Australian government. Pandering to a group of foreign lobby groups because they believe it will cost/gain them votes.
However true that might be, they ought to consider how their supporters feel about their watering down, or reversal, of stated policies.
Electric vehicle take up faces huge challenges in Australia. Not least of which is the fierce determination of many ICE owners to defend their ‘right’ to own a vehicle that makes them feel good and damn the consequences.
There are many models for the phasing in of EVs. Nations with a small, affluent population and relatively small land mass, combined with a progressive govt can fairly easily introduce policy that doesn’t lead to civil war. Australia is none of these things.
The escape clause provided by the watering down of the emission standards will result in the massive uptake of hybrids, another compomise that undermines the whole notion of net zero, itself a half in half out failure to grasp the nettle.
If, as claimed elsewhere, someone has invented a 3d printer that can reproduce steel parts then we can expect to see ICE on the roads for the next hundred years.
These dinosaurs can see the asteroid heading in their direction and are flailing their forelegs, roaring at it. Meanwhile, the govt is hastily building bomb shelters for them.
A very poor article from Giles lacking real facts
Of the facts in the article, which of the “real” ones are you willing to dispute?
Is this what we’ve become?
A nation divided?
We are doomed, worn out by the race to the bottom.
John you don’t really expect the trolls to be analytical or insightful do you?
No.
Just disappointed that they never hang around to defend themselves.
Cowardly snipers.
I wonder if AEMO has factored in EV price parity happening soon and record rooftop solar installation. There will be a tipping point.
Just need to build the sharing network.
Speaking of tipping points, the effects of greenhouse gases have been known about and ignored for more than 60 years.
It seems nobody, in the middle of the industrial revolution in England, connected the noxious London fog with human activity pollution. (they probably blamed it on foreigners)
We are beyond the tipping point.
The best we can hope for is a slowing of the inevitable.
Time for a new documentary. The rise and fall of humans.
Agree with last para. I was tasked by a local group to see what scope exists to achieve a sustainable future and finding were narrow pathway – while I have one more report to do my conclusion is short of a complete change of culture in most more advanced countries the early stages of global collapse are underway.
If only our NVES targets were both more ambitious and followed a pathway to zero gCO2/km by 2035, like everyone was suggesting…
If you thought the scare campaign was good last time, wait for the review into post-2029 targets.
Perhaps we should follow the example of Ethiopia and ban the import of ICE cars, that’d hurry things along
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/17/climate/ethiopia-evs-gas-car-ban-climate/index.html
Again, plenty of phasing in. No phasing out.
Despite the Japanese legacy car manufacturers’ best efforts (especially Toyota) to slow EV uptake in Australia with their FUD, they will soon be overwhelmed soon by the Chinese basis cost and efficiency. Price parity is rapidly approaching (you can currently get an MG ZS SUV for just a smidge over $30 k with a 10 year warranty!) Manufacturing simplicity and total cost of ownership will defeat FUD and consumers’ experience will demand true EVs. Fleet owners will be dragged quickly to true EV fleets basis operating cost.
A hybrid is the worst of both worlds. Still meet petrol.
Remember, if it has an exhaust pipe, it’s not an EV – and it has thousands more moving parts than an EV. Cost and simplicity will win.
Never mind “Chinese basis [sic] cost”, what really got the Chinese EV sector going was government subsidies.
Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is tanking and the Chinese Communist Party will soon run out of money to throw at overseas customers of Chinese EVs. When the funny money stops, there will be a giant change in the Chinese EV sector, with some producers taken over, while others sinking without a trace.
Hence, the mentioned fabulous 10-year warranty offered by MG is only a good thing if MG can stay in business. If not, whatever the piece of paper says the proud owner will have a dud.
MG has hybrids and ICE and a better-known name going for it.
I think you are ignoring a number of vital elements: their enormous foreign reserves, their dominance in many emerging industries, the reliance of the West on them for a staggering range of goods and their place as a key buyer of materials. They do have a staggering over capacity of battery manufacturing and that is enabling them the heavily discount cars. If trends continue, China oil consumption will eventually fall and take global consumption with it. Australia as close to 100% dependent on imports will be vulnerable.
29000 people surveyed 78% did not want a ev and 15% are thinking about at a later date.
Your story is way out.
Your shares going down
*29000 people who are 70+ and will not buy another car regardless of type.
But yes, your numbers are not fake.
Pointless. Irreverent even, but not fake.
Good to see you over here from the Sky News facebook page.
Hahaha!
Good one Sam.
Call them out when you see them.
Stop monitoring fox news.
The vehicle leasing clause that stops hybrids from enjoying FBT exemption from April next year has not been taken into account, methinks.
Leasing. FBT?
Not really the options that are going to decide the future of the nation.
They’ve watered down the rules.
Hybrids will become exempt from emission standards because they will find a way to measure the emissions so that they are close to ‘almost’ zero. And if they plant a tree in front of the factory then net zero.
To people who say to me, “My next car’s going to be a hybrid”, I ask, “Why wasn’t your last one a hybrid?”
The problem with tiny steps Ben, is that they produce tiny results.
It’s too late for evolution.
That forecast seems to make adjustments for headwinds in our difficult economic and political backsliding times. However, I don’t think it takes sufficient account of the barnstorming success of some Chinese brands and the rise of LFP batteries, where ten years ago, there was much condescension. Who saw that change coming?
In my sales experience, price always matters. The Chinese brands, especially BYD, have the means to price-match ICE vehicles from the usual brands and do even better (for both price and ongoing value).
Quote under a post by Michael Dunne:
Like so much with the clean renewable energy based economy, China is making it possible in the war against rent seekers.
China never did anything recently that didn’t advance China’s interests.
Their relationship with America is complex. Australia is the minnow in the middle, attractive bait for both sides.
I think this line in the article is quite inaccurate when referring to why some automakers wanted a watered down nves: “it does little to change their business model that is dependent on engine repairs,”
That makes no sense, most engine repairs carried out by a manufacturers dealer network would be under warranty so would actually cost them money. Routine servicing is one income stream but not the big income generator. It’s the finance and profit margin on new/ used vehicles, and accessories where the big money is made I suspect. This shouldn’t actually vary whether the vehicle is EV, hybrid or ICE. The reason for the opposition I suspect is more for market competitiveness, and lower R&D costs.
“On average, barely 5 per cent of a dealer’s profit comes from new car sales. The majority (about 50 per cent) comes from parts and service, while the remainder comes from finance and insurance (30 per cent) and the balance is from used cars (15 per cent).”
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-advice/dealer-profit-margins-explained-32397
The majority of folks I speak to about EVs are unaware of free charging between 11-2pm and discount rate between midnight-6am. So cost of fuelling for 350km range @100kph, sits between $0 and $4.50. The hybrid forums reflect buyers remorse as they figure out consumption ain’t what was promised and they have to charge every night to wring out the best range… In respect to long road trips, after exhausting the battery which was topped up at home, the second 1000km of range requires filling up with both petrol and electrons.(And the AC and DC charge rate is often pitifully slower on hybrids than BEVs). Ford USA say the average family do just three trips per annum where distance travelled is over 150miles. Low capacity battery and low power engine, worst of both worlds. Not to mention, compared to ice, twice the rate of fires per 100,000…..
Please proof read your articles before posting them. The moment I have to read “pubic scare campaign” all credibility of the information in the article is lost. There are multiple typos throughout this article which really reduces the impact of the messages it is trying to convey.
Yours truly, the general pubic.
Truish. The problem with typos that give actual real words is that your spell checcker doesn’t flag them. As a nitpicker from way back I missed it too. (no pun intended)
Yep, the propaganda is working, but remember one thing. You still have to fossil fuels in the bloody things.
It has been said that PHEVs are a gateway drug, to owning an EV. Let’s hope so.
If you are not a “true believer” in pure EVs, the value equation for hybrids is more attractive to the consumer:: longer range, lower cost, and you avoid that problem of how you can sell your old EV when it’s battery has died. Sorry to disappoint you EV enthusiasts, but EVs will not dominate the car market until these issues are addressed by EV technology.
what’s the average distance travelled per day, range isn’t that important if you can top up at home. Why sell the EV if it is going to last longer than ICE vehicles does. Batteries in modern EVs (3 -4 years or less) will last the life of the car.
I feel certain that I read somewhere of a battery exchange system. Do they weld them in or make them completely inaccessible? If so, that seems like irresponsible car making. Sorry, my ignorance is showing.
Happens with cars, trucks and buses in China. Nio is doing it in places like Norway for cars, there are a few vids online showing the process. Now you can order the battery capacity you want. Taxis in Norway like spending less than 5 mins for a replenished battery.
Wow!
Norway, leading the world. Again.
“ the abject failure of unreliable Tritium DC fast chargers in giving the public confidence about range anxiety”
Buy Australian, pay the price.
If we consider the problem is the type of fuel that vehicles run on, then it’s time to go after the fuels.
People can buy whatever they want, but know that an ICE purchase comes with an increasing, staged penalty for polluting fuels. This will also help get rid of older cars too.
Start with removal of tax exemptions on diesel for business. Needs to be staged, and dates set so new vehicle purchasers see the writing on the wall.
It’s becoming clear that the ALP is offering us nothing when it comes to the environment.
Sadly Labor are giving us lots more coal and gas project approvals, further advancing climate change.
Yes.
The COALition is far more predictable.
♫ It’s a Happy Day at Toyota’s Head Office ♪
Just more corruption and grift between politicians and industry. Same old, same old.
This site supports EVs for environmental reasons. I’d just like to say that if you, dear reader, really care about the environment, please consider changing your diet to a plant-based diet rather than eggs, meat, and dairy. It will make a MUCH bigger difference than driving an EV
I agree with you if you are referring to beef burgers, but there is room for sustainable chicken and fish farming. Even off grid hobby farms would be unlikely to exclude dairy and poultry.
Veganism might be a noble pursuit but expecting the world to embrace it is a great example of wishful thinking in the face of reality.
Watch the linked video and see if you still think the same…..
There are some amazing chinese EVs coming. That could change things…
This is appalling. We need to transition from coal, oil, and gas to clean energy as quickly as possible. How quickly? I have seen different estimates, but they seem to agree that if we are to have any chance of staying within the 1.5 to 2 degrees of extra warming range, then our use of all fossil fuels needs to reduce by at least 10% per year, starting now.
I think the fundamental problem is that too few Australians know or understand that our use of coal, oil, and gas are the cause of the climate crisis, and that the industries who produce and sell those fuels are guilty of a far too effective disinformation campaign they have run for decades. It’s actually very simple: if we want a safe climate then the coal, oil, and gas industries must go.
We should turn our attention to the large users of coal, oil, and gas and expect them to tell us how much of each fuel they use each year and what their plans are to transition away from them. If Fortescue Metals Group can publish a plan to eliminate diesel by 2030, then so can most of the other large users.
Canada’s decision to slap a 100% tariff on cheap Chinese EVs is the perfect example of a reactionary govt. Deliberately slowing the uptake in the name of preserving a few what? local jobs? Do they have local car makers? If so, are they transitioning?
From afar it looks like another mildly affluent country refusing to see what’s in front of them. Or, more likely, kowtowing to powerful lobby groups.
I’m going to have to disagree PHEVs ‘do not do so much for cutting emissions’, sorry. The latest PHEVs now have decent electric only range and given we know most vehicles travel just 40-50 kilometres a day, that should result in predominantly EV driving and a significant drop in pollution. As always, economics rule and a smaller battery (and a relatively cheap wee ICE) make PHEVs a pragmatic and cost effective choice, until price parity with EVs occurs, and ‘range anxiety’ diminishes.