In what The New York Times is calling “the nation’s most ambitious climate regulation”, the US government is poised to make an announcement on Wednesday that will dramatically accelerate the electric vehicle revolution.
On Saturday The New York Times reported that the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) is set to propose new rules this week that are designed to drive up EV sales tenfold.
“The Biden administration is planning some of the most stringent auto pollution limits in the world, designed to ensure that all-electric cars make up as much as 67 percent of new passenger vehicles sold in the country by 2032, according to two people familiar with the matter.” says the New York Time report.
Like the vehicle emissions standards that are currently being developed in Australia, the new regulations set by the US government won’t mandate that EVs make up a specific number or percentage of sales but would require that carmakers total sales do not exceed a certain emissions limit.
According to the New York Times source, the limit would be so strict that it would force carmakers to ensure that two thirds of the vehicles they sold were all-electric by 2032.
Tighter US emissions standards will encourage Australia to go further
Almost 14 million cars were sold in the US in 2022 making it the second largest car market in the world so any new pollution regulations in the US will have global implications as manufacturers are forced to retool to make EVs.
The Australian government is currently in the process of determining Australia’s vehicle emission standards. The strength and ambition of those standards will determine how fast Australia will transition away from polluting petrol and diesel cars.
Weak standards could lead to Australia becoming a dumping ground for the world’s polluting vehicles as legacy automakers try to sell old stock that can no longer be sold in markets with strong regulations. This would result in Australian cities having higher rates of air pollution for longer with devastating impacts on public health.
The Australian government recently published 400 submissions to its National Electric Vehicle Strategy which included overwhelming calls for strong vehicle emissions standards.
Environmental groups slammed Toyota after its submission proposed the inclusion of loopholes such as “super credits” and “off-cycle credits” that can obscure manufacturers’ true emissions.
Toyota has been lobbying governments around the world to water down vehicle pollution standards because electric vehicles currently only make up 0.2% of its total production meaning a rapid shift to EVs will see the world’s largest car maker lose market share.
It’s hoped that strong emissions standards in the US will encourage the Australian government to be more ambitious with the strength of Australia’s standards.
US follows tightening of pollution standards in EU and China
The United States move to significantly tighten vehicle emissions standards comes as the other two major car markets also move to tighten vehicle pollution regulations.
The world’s largest car market China is set to introduce its “China 6b” standard in July this year. The ICCT says “China 6b further lowers the limits by about one third to half of the magnitude for NOX, THC, NMHC, PM, and CH4, on top of the China 6a standard.”
Its reported that there is currently an car inventory crisis in China with millions of unsellable petrol and diesel cars sitting in dealerships across the country as Chinese consumers chose EVs over petrol and diesel cars.
One quarter of all cars sold in China in 2022 were electric and that figure is estimated to grow to 35% by the end of 2023. The speed of the shift to EVs in China has caught legacy car makers by surprise as the world’s largest market for petrol and diesel cars drops by millions each year.
The new 6b standard which is due to come into force in July will further compound the inventory crisis as hundreds of thousands of vehicles will no longer meet the standard.
While it was recently reported that the Chinese government may capitulate to auto dealer lobby groups to delay the implementation of the new regulation, no official announcement has yet been made.
The European Union has also recently legislated the phase out of petrol and diesel cars by 2035.
The EU’s legislation to phase out petrol and diesel cars has been celebrated as a milestone for the world’s transition to EVs despite Germany’s last minute amendment to the legislation to allow an exemption for cars running on so-called “e-fuels”.
Its believed that Germany’s push for the e-fuel exemption is coming from Germany’s powerful auto industry as a loophole to allow it to continue selling petrol cars after 2035.
Despite the attempts by many legacy automakers to water down vehicle emissions standards there is a clear trend towards stronger vehicle emissions standards around the world.
With the US now poised to introduce strong emissions standards, Australia now has the opportunity to also legislate strong standards and accelerate the transition away from polluting vehicles.
Daniel Bleakley is a clean technology researcher and advocate with a background in engineering and business. He has a strong interest in electric vehicles, renewable energy, manufacturing and public policy.