UPDATE: Tesla makes “human error” in sales data, but 2021 still a phenomenal year for EVs
Australia’s electric car market kicked some serious goals in 2021, and new data reveals something very significant: EV pioneer Tesla outsold auto market leader Toyota in 2021 in the medium-sized sedan segment (Editor’s note: a correction to the data now shows that Toyota sold about 1,000 more Camrys than Tesla sold Model 3s – see link above).
Exclusive data collected by the Electric Vehicle Council (EVC) under a new agreement with Tesla reveals that the EV maker sold 15,054 Model 3 sedans in Australia in the past twelve months, while auto sales data from industry statistician Vfacts tells us Toyota sold 13,081 Camry sedans.
It is also the first time that Tesla has been able to claim a position in the top 20 auto sales. Neither are small wins; Tesla is only a decade old, spends no money on advertising, has only had one mass-market vehicle for sale in Australia since late 2019 and did not import any of its premium Model S and Model X here in 2021.
Perhaps more significantly, it is also the first time that Tesla has publicly shared its local sales data, and thanks to this we are able to make for the first accurate observations about the state of the electric car market in Australia, which is lagging sorely behind EV uptake in global markets due to a lack of policy support at a national level.
Australia doesn’t have a demand problem, it has a supply problem
The most obvious observation of course is that Tesla still leads the market by a long shot. Following far behind in second and third place, MG sold 1,388 ZS EVs and Porsche sold 531 Taycans.
Although Tesla has a reputation for doing things differently and its cars, with minimalist design and high-tech features, present a whole new take on what it is to own a car, there is more behind its phenomenal lead than fanboy and fangirl obsession with the rule-breaking brand.
Speaking with The Driven, EVC CEO Behyad Jafari said Tesla’s sales figures are indicative of the appetite that Australian drivers have for electric vehicles.
But he says that due to a dearth of policy designed to assist a transition to clean transport at a national level that is common outside Australia – including those headed by Tory governments – other car-makers are struggling to convince overseas HQ to allocate more product locally.
It means that although there are some 30 electric car models available in Australia now, presenting more diverse choices and price points to drivers, there are simply not enough units available for delivery.
“The big message is that Model 3 sales numbers show that Australians want EVs and other carmakers can also sell EVs with one secret ingredient – make a good car at a good price point but make it available to customers,” he says.
To buy a Tesla, all a driver needs to do is go to the website and order it. Tesla will deliver, with sometimes a three-month wait, but deliver they do.
In contrast, legacy carmakers are told by head office that they will only be able to sell 400-500 cars, sometimes in an entire one-year period. This limitation saw the Ioniq 5 sell out within hours in late 2021, Polestar also now has a long waiting list for its Polestar 2 and Kia has said it has just 500 of its new EV6 available for sale for all of 2022.
“What I’m very confident about is Australia doesn’t have a demand problem, it has a supply problem,” says Jafari.
The impact of state EV policies
Yes, the new figures reveal that the local EV market has more than tripled from 2020 to 2021. In 2020, 6,900 EVs were sold compared to a little more than 24,000 in 2021.
It sounds encouraging, but looking at state by state sales data for 2021 reveals that the transition in Australia should in fact be further ahead.
2021 was a, shall we say, interesting and mostly encouraging year for EV policy in Australia. The ACT introduced two year’s free registration, stamp duty waivers and $15,000 interest-free loans among other things for drivers buying EVs. Tasmania introduced a stamp duty waiver, and Queensland – which was once the only state to offer registration and stamp duty discounts for EV owners, continues to develop its ZEV strategy.
Three states – NSW, Victoria, and South Australia – for the first time introduced electric car purchase rebates of $3,000 for cars meeting threshold requirements, as well as other various carrots from stamp duty waivers to registration discounts. Victoria introduced its incentives in July, while NSW and South Australia introduced theirs later in the year.
But, Victoria also made the infamous decision to become the only jurisdiction in the world to introduce a road user tax for electric vehicles of 2.5 cents per kilometre driven, regardless of whether the car is driven in or out of state, or on private roads.
Victoria did this ostensibly to make up for the fact that EV owners don’t pay fuel excise, but EV experts pointed out that in such a nascent industry where drivers already pay more taxes when buying EVs through stamp duty and in some cases luxury car tax, the state risked putting a halter on increased uptake.
Looking now at state EV sales data shared to The Driven, we can share that NSW saw the most new EVs registered in 2021, followed by Victoria, then Queensland and quite interestingly, Western Australia.
ACT | NSW | NT | QLD | SA | TAS | VIC | WA | AUS | |
TOTAL | 976 | 7,430 | 50 | 5,342 | 1,122 | 399 | 6,396 | 2,363 | 24,078 |
On market share, the national average now sits at 2.39%, with the ACT holding a shining light to the states at 5.87% market share. Victoria followed with Queensland, NSW, Western Australia and Tasmania close behind.
What we can see initially is that while Victoria came in second, NSW drivers have only had access to rebates since September compared to six months in the south, and with the SA rebate a latecomer having been introduced in December, there is yet to be a substantial increase in EV sales there.
Market Share | ACT | NSW | NT | QLD | SA | TAS | VIC | WA | AUS |
5.87% | 2.23% | 0.51% | 2.29% | 1.62% | 2.13% | 2.31% | 2.19% | 2.39% |
“What we saw is that in states that brought in incentives, they also got a jump in sales – their total yearly number was higher,” Jafari said. “What we saw in Queensland was sales were steady throughout the year but NSW and Victoria had jumps post rebates.” There was likely a stall in sales in NSW and Victoria also as drivers awaited the introduction of incentives.
We need vehicle and fuel efficiency standards
The outlook for 2022 will be interesting as drivers access a full 12 months of incentives in NSW, Victoria and SA, but Jafari says more still needs to be done if there is to be more inventory available for consumers.
“Brands that sell petrol and diesel need fuel efficiency standards to make the case to bring electric models here,” he says, noting the work that New Zealand is doing with the introduction of what it calls “Clean Car Standards”.
Read more: Tesla Model 3 overtakes Nissan Leaf in New Zealand, challenges Toyota
“When I look at our sales figures for last year, if we’d had access to more inventory that number would have been a lot higher,” he says.
“Emissions standards is the big one – we would be looking at very different automotive market.”
Noting the kickback from carmaker to proposed strict clean car standards in NZ, Jafari says, “Every market that has introduced these standards there is a level of pushback from carmaker – (they say) they are way too strong and should be weaker,” noting the loudest calls come from carmakers that haven’t invested enough in electrification to date.
“But auto companies can get around to (electrification),” he says. “It does take work, and by far the most important thing is to have standards in place.”
“They need to be stricter particularly in Australia because we are behind and we have a lot of catching up to do.”
Bridie Schmidt is associate editor for The Driven, sister site of Renew Economy. She has been writing about electric vehicles since 2018, and has a keen interest in the role that zero-emissions transport has to play in sustainability. She has participated in podcasts such as Download This Show with Marc Fennell and Shirtloads of Science with Karl Kruszelnicki and is co-organiser of the Northern Rivers Electric Vehicle Forum. Bridie also owns a Tesla Model Y and has it available for hire on evee.com.au.