As a pointer to where EVs are really going (as opposed to what the naysayers and ‘gas led recovery’ proponents in our current federal government would have us believe) – we only have to look to the European market to see what forward-thinking policy on reducing pollution and climate change-causing emissions can do.
Jato Dynamics have just released its analysis of the November European plug-in EV (PEV) sales – and they are quite startling!
They found that in their basket of 25 European countries, PEV sales passed 1 in 4 of all new car sales. In fact – EV sales now outnumber diesel as the second biggest passenger car fuel type – with diesel vehicle sales falling by almost half since 2019 (32% to 18%) and EV sales moving from 4% to 26%.
Interestingly, a major part of those increasing sales can be attributed to EV model choice – with many more models of EV becoming available in that time.
This is dramatically shown in the table below where most of Europe’s top 10 BEVS have only become available in the last year or two – yet only two of that top 10 are currently available in Australia. (These being the Tesla Model 3 in the top spot and the Kia e-Niro at 10th).
Furthermore, EV sales in Europe are looking more and more like they are following the typical technology transition pathway – with all the attendant disruptive effects this can bring if not properly planned for.
So will we see a similar surge in EV sales here in 2022? Well, 2021 has seen an effective doubling of Australian new EV sales numbers over 2020. (Not exactly startling numbers though: below 1% in 2020 to perhaps 2% in 2021). However we are expecting more model BEV choice in 2022, so further increases are definitely on the cards.
A steep increase is also inevitable in the longer term as manufacturers are already planning to simply stop constructing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to only build EVs, so ICE vehicles will ultimately just disappear from showrooms. However, a near-future increase in Australian EV sales is still problematic.
As I wrote here, this principally results from the combination of positive EV Transition policies in Europe and North America incentivising manufacturers to sell their vehicles there – as well as poor Australian federal EV transition policy effectively motivating manufacturers to avoid bringing them to Australia at all.
(Or, in the case of Renault, to give up selling them here – as exemplified by their withdrawal of the Zoe, which in Europe has consistently been one of the best-selling BEVs since 2015).
As for what 2022 brings the Australian EV market – I for one am hoping it at least brings us more enlightened policies for zero-emission transport.
I think most Australians are getting sick of head-in-the-sand climate policies with the associated deliberately partisan and divisive EV scare campaigns that we saw in the last federal election campaign.
What Australia needs is cross-party support for ensuring a smooth EV transition – as seen in Europe – and why they are doing so well in their EV transition. (Unlike us).
Bryce Gaton is an expert on electric vehicles and contributor for The Driven and Renew Economy. He has been working in the EV sector since 2008 and is currently working as EV electrical safety trainer/supervisor for the University of Melbourne. He also provides support for the EV Transition to business, government and the public through his EV Transition consultancy EVchoice.