What does Model 3 price drop mean for Model Y?

The Tesla Model Y is not yet available in Australia, but how much it will cost is of significant interest, not least because Tesla boss Elon Musk thinks it will be even more successful than the market-beating Model 3.

The recent drop in price of the Tesla Model 3 in Australia, which has brought its base-level price to below $60,000, gives us an opportunity to revisit potential Model Y pricing.

As we noted in this article on Monday, the price drop now means owning a Model 3 can theoretically cost less than owning an entry-level Toyota Camry hybrid, and although resale costs may be less than suggested in that article even the cheapest Model 3 on CarSales.com.au is being offered for just 13% less than its original price in 2019.

So what will the Model Y cost?

Previous calculations based on recent Model Y pricing in Hong Kong suggested it could start from just under $70,000. That would be a little over the $68,750 threshold for the recently announced Victorian and NSW $3,000 EV rebates.

That assumes that the Standard Range version is introduced in Australia from the get go. Whether that happens remains to be seen although recent reports that Model Y orders are on the increase in China (as no doubt ramping of production is also) suggests uptake could encourage Tesla to do the same in Australia.

So, if we factor in calculations based on the recent Model 3 price drop to $59,900 for a Stand Range Model 3 – well, it’s looking pretty good for the Model Y.

It brings the estimated price down to around $65,900 before on-roads, which could well mean that once NSW EV incentives kick in come September, it may cost just $62,900, and with a stamp duty waiver included will save drivers more than $5,000.

This article has been updated to include model specifications and clarify that the base model is a Standard Range, not Standard Range Plus.