IEA says all new cars must be electric by 2035. Will Australia do it?

A new report from the International Energy Agency says sales of fossil vehicle cars must end by 2035 for the world to be on track to net zero emissions by 2050, and a global heating limit of 1.5°C.

The report identifies several key milestones that must be reached, notably no new passenger internal combustion engine car sales globally by 2035.

It will also require 200 million units of EV public charging by 2050, with the share of electrified rail lines increaisng from 34% in 2020 to 65% in 2050. For aviation, a signfiicant proportion of emisisons reductions comes from ‘avoided demand’ from behaviour measures, such as fewer business flights and replacing short-haul flights with rail or road transport.

The report notes that global emissions from transport were 7 GTCO2 in 2020 and 8.5 GTCO2 in 2019, but need to fall to 5.5 GTCO2 in 2030 and 0.7 GTCO2 by 2050 to align with a net zero scenario. The modelling asumes a rising population and increased usage of transport, with a doubling in the global passenger car fleet between 2020 and 2050.

Hence the need to electrify transport and supply that electricity with zero emissions power, mostly wind and solar. This should be relatively simple for light-duty vehicles, but heavy trucks, shipping and aviation have a longer downards curve because only a small proportion of available technolgoies are at a ‘mature’ stage.

“In the (Net zero emissions scenario, NZE), the share of oil drops to less than 75% in 2030 and slightly over 10% by 2050,” it says. “By the early 2040s, electricity becomes the dominant fuel in the transport sector worldwide in the NZE: it accounts for nearly 45% of total final consumption in 2050, followed by hydrogen‐based fuels (28%) and bioenergy (16%).”

Though the technology for light duty vehicles is mature, the rate of change is slow even when the proportion of new vehicle sales is high. That means a high proprotion of new electric vehicle sales needs to be reached soon to achieve ambitious emissions reductions.

“Light‐duty vehicles are electrified faster in advanced economies over the medium term and account for around 75% of sales by 2030. In emerging and developing economies, they account for about 50% of sales. Almost all light‐duty vehicle sales in advanced economies are battery electric, plug‐in hybrid or fuel cell electric by the early 2030s and in emerging and developing economies by the mid‐2030s”.

Perhaps pre-empting the controversial nature of both hydrogen vehicles and biofuels, the IEA also include an ‘all electric’ case for the transition for road transport, achieving the same magnitude of decarbonisation but using only battery electric vehicles.

“The All‐Electric Case depends on even further advances in battery technologies than the NZE that lead to energy densities of at least 400 Watt hours per kilogramme (Wh/kg) by the 2030s at costs that would make BEV trucks preferable to FCEV trucks in long‐haul operations.

“This would mean 30% more BEVs (an additional 350 million) on the road in 2030 than in the NZE”, say the IEA. “Over sixty five million public chargers would be needed to support the vehicles, requiring a cumulative investment of around USD 300 billion, 35% higher than the NZE”.

Australia’s federal government – and some state governments – have struggled to establish a clear pathway to decarbonising transport sectors at a timescale aligned with net zero pathways.

Recently, Australia’s Federal Energy and Emissions Reductions Minister Angus Taylor bragged of driving long distances in a fossil vehicle. The government has also expanded public subsidies for oil refinieries, even as new analysis shows transport emissions may overtake power sector emissions in Australia by the end of the decade.

The government’s most recent projections in Austarlia predict transport emissions will stall after 2021 and the share of new sales of electric vehicles will be around 19% by 2030.