Peak Tesla? The decline in Tesla EV sales, and its brand reputation

Tesla remains a compelling story for anyone interested in the transition to electric mobility. The company dominated the EV market for years following the release of the Model S and the Model X, and then with the best selling Model 3 and Model Y electric sedan and SUV.

The company, unarguably, transformed the global market place for electric vehicles, and now hopes to do the same in autonomous driving, with the release of the Full Self Driving package, soon to be available on subscription only.

What is also unarguable is that Tesla car sales have peaked. Is that a permanent state of affairs, or just a “transitional” period as the company’s main product morphs from cars with human controls to the much talked about robo-cabs.

These set of graphs from the excellent Nat Bullard, a former Bloomberg NEF journalists and now analyst and consultant who puts together an unrivalled annual collection of 200 graphs on the state of the climate and energy transition, tells a clear story.

The first map show Tesla’s total sales, by quarter (in blue) and a running average (the red line). It seems to indicate that Tesla peaks in late 2023, just before the release of the upgraded Model 3.

There was a record quarter of sales in 2025 (September) after the release of the upgraded Model Y, but 2025 sales are down 140,000 year on year, Bullard notes.

The second graph highlights that most of this decline has occurred in Europe, where total sales have declined by nearly one third since the peak in late 2023, and in 2025 are down by more than 100,000 year on year from 2024.

What could the reason be? A number of different factors are cited: The rollout and wait for the revised Model 3 and then the Model Y, increased competition from lower prices Chinese EVs – particularly from BYD which now delivers more full battery electric cars than Tesla – and the removal of EV rebates in the US.

The one factor that Tesla supporters and shareholders don’t like mentioned in the Elon factor, and the impact of his voluble and ongoing support from Donald Trump in the US, and far-right parties in Europe, particularly in Germany and the UK.

In that light, this next graph from Bullard is very interesting. It shows the reputation rankings for Tesla in the US over the last six years. In 2021, the company was ranked number 8 in the US by pollster Axios Harris. But in the last few years it has plunged, to 62 in 2023, 63 in 2024 and then 95 in 2025.

The Axios Harris poll rates the 100 most visible companies in the US. Axios reported that Tesla rates “dead last” in “character,” and near the bottom in areas like “ethics” and “citizenship”. Six other automakers place higher, with the highest being Toyota at No. 4 and the lowest being Ford at No. 60.

Axios notes that other companies associated with Musk, including Spacex (86th) and X (98th), also rated poorly. The Trump Organisation ranked 99th.

Those rankings are for the US. In other countries, it’s not hard to imagine that the impact of Musk’s direct political interventions on the company’s brand reputation may also be dramatic.

Which might explain – at least partially – why Tesla can still produce what many justifiably claim to be the best-value EVs in the world, and can still suffer a slump in sales.

Note: Hat tip to Nat Bullard’s excellent annual presentation – 200 graphs on climate and energy and transport – that you can find here. 

Added note: The author of this story owns two Tesla EVs.

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