Graphs of the Day: Tesla’s volatile but weakening EV sales performance

It is the talking point of the electric vehicle industry, and for many thinking of entering the EV market for the first time. Do I buy a Tesla? What’s the alternative? Is it really just about the car?

It may seem obsessive, but the Australian EV market has been dominated by Tesla pretty much since electric cars were a talking point. As recently as two years ago, Tesla accounted for two thirds of the Australian EV market share. Now it averages half that.

In June, a rebound in Model Y and Model 3 sales helped the EV market catapult above 10 per cent share of the new car market for the first time. In July, a plunge in sales from the Model Y and Model 3 took it back down to 6.9 per cent. Other car makers, such as BYD, Kia and Geely are making ground, but no other market is quite so exposed to the ructions of a single brand.

So it seems like a good time to update our monthly graphs. You can find details of all EV sales, by model and by brand here. See: Australian electric vehicle sales by month in 2025 – by model and by brand. Author Tim Eden has also collected the data for the following graphs.

The first graph shows the Tesla sales volume by model, with the MY in blue and the M3 in red. They bounce around a lot, weak in the first month of the quarter and stronger at the end of the quarter. But the picture is of steady decline – the peaks are not as high and the troughs are getting lower.

The second graph shows total sales for Tesla and total sales for non-Tesla. Tesla had been dominant but has been outsold by non-Tesla EVs since April, 2024. The gap is now as wide as it has ever been, even though the total for non-Tesla sales also fell in July.

This next shows the sales by percentage, Tesla vs non-Tesla. It is fairly self-explanatory, and would not be an issue if the overall market in EVs was growing as strongly as it is in many European countries, where Tesla has always had a much smaller shares. Maybe many Australian customers are still wrestling with the “what if it’s not a Tesla” question.

See also: Australian electric vehicle sales by month in 2025 – by model and by brand