Image: Riz Akhtar
Australia’s EV market rebounded strongly in May, posting more than 10,000 new car sales in a single month for the first time in more than a year, and getting close to the important 10 per cent share of the overall market.
The surge in sales was led by the rebound in the sales of the Tesla Model Y, Australia’s best selling EV for most of the last two years, thanks to the long awaited first deliveries of its widely admired refreshed version.
The question for Tesla – and for the whole Australian market given that the company is still by far the biggest players in the local EV market – is how long this rebound will last.
The Model 3 enjoyed a signifiant rebound early last year after the launch of its refreshed version, but its bounce did not last long, as the graph below illustrates. Sales of the Model 3 are now at historic lows and the electric sedan barely scrapes into the top 10 best selling EV models in the country.
(See our month by month EV sales data here).
The Model Y rebound in May was significant, as illustrated by the graph above, but its monthly sales were still well below the levels of mid to late 2023, and in March last year.
Will the rebound continue? And if so, for how many months?
The Tesla equation is complicated by the consumer response to the political activities of Elon Musk, even with his recent fallout with US president Donald Trump, and his subsequent back-tracking on some of his most strident claims.
The debate about the extent of the consumer backlash has been fiercely debated on this and other platforms, with many Tesla pundits arguing that it is a furphy, and a minor impact if it exists at all.
Trump’s reported decision to possibly sell his newly purchased Tesla because he was offended by Musk’s public comments about him appear to be Exhibit A in the case against that argument.
If Trump can change his mind and car buying habits because of his personal affection or disaffection of the CEO, might it be conceivable that others in the world might be moved to do the same?
We shall soon find out. June is traditionally a strong month for Tesla as the company likes to back-fill sales before the end of a quarter, and Tesla’s local boss Thom Drew has hinted at a number of ships heading for Australia loaded with the Model Ys.
The health of the local EV market depends on it. Even with the growth of Kia, Geely, BYD, MG and others, they are still not gaining the traction of Tesla – and Australia needs to consistently post more than 10 per cent EV sales, and grow that quickly, to keep up with the rest of the world, and cut its growing transport emissions.
As we wrote last week, and illustrated with a series of graphs, the transition to EVs in Australia is a bit of a slow burn, with hybrids more popular and the share still stubbornly stuck below 10 per cent. The New Vehicle Emissions Standard also comes into effect from July 1, so that could be an influence.
See: Five key graphs that show the state of the EV market in Australia
Giles Parkinson is founder and editor of The Driven, and also edits and founded the Renew Economy and One Step Off The Grid web sites. He has been a journalist for nearly 40 years, is a former business and deputy editor of the Australian Financial Review, and owns a Tesla Model 3.
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My new Tesla Model Y Juniper is a FANTASTIC car. M'kay? You'd be insane to buy any other EV marque at this point, with Tesla's leading after sales service, broad network of depots, huge charging network, and world-leading efficiency. The rest of the brands are in a price war, all of them are in huge debt and face looming bankruptcy — except BYD, and BYD's approach is to generate a new model every month or so hoping something will be really, REALLY popular. It's like throwing a bowl of spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks. If you want to grab a strand of that spaghetti, be my guest, but don't come crying when your model has little to no support in a few years as BYD makes it defunct.
Tesla M3 (being a sedan) has little appeal here in Australia (mores the pity as it's a capable car in most respects and great to drive). As such it's destined to be down in the charts now there are the a plethora of other SUV vehicles available. The MY and M3 are still benchmarks but as many have said they won't "buy the Musk" the peak of Tesla's sales have been reached (for the moment). Let's focus on the overall EV % sales figure and get more bum's on seats and less on the Tesla daily grind of how much market share they enjoy (or otherwise).