How Tesla surrendered its dominance of Australia’s EV market

It wasn’t that long ago that Tesla was – without a shadow of a doubt – the dominant force in Australia’s nascent electric vehicle market. In fact, some would argue that it was, for all intents and purposes, the Australian EV market.

In early 2023 Tesla still dominated with more than 68 per cent of new electric car sales in Australia, and it retained more than a 50 per cent EV market share until September that year, and again as recently as March, 2024, when it had 57 per cent.

But in the past 12 months, Tesla’s market share has steadily slumped, and in April this year hit a record low of just 8.32 per cent, ahead of the start of deliveries of the refreshed Model Y.

There are a couple of reasons for the slump in market share: One is the increased competition, particularly the Chinese auto brands led by BYD, MG and others. That impact has been visible for nearly two years, as the graphs above and below illustrate.

In the last few months, there has also been the re-tooling of factories for the new Model Y, and customers waiting for the new model, despite some big discounts offered on existing stock.

And April’s figure is made worse because the first month of a quarter is traditionally not strong for Tesla, given it likes to load sales at the end of each quarter. Hence the volatility in the graphs above and below.

The last factor is the one that is the most difficult to assess – the consumer pushback against Elon Musk’s political actions.

Tesla fans deny this is actually a thing – but the anecdotal evidence, the plunge in sales in Australia and particularly overseas in markets such as Germany, Sweden and Canada, and the impact of “hostile” acts acknowledged by Musk and Tesla executives in the recent earnings call – suggest that it is, actually, a thing.

To what extent we are about to find out. Deliveries of Tesla’s new Model Y began in Australia last week, and local boss Thom Drew says one boat with 3,500 vehicles on board has arrived, and more are on their way. The company is confident of big things, he told The Driven last week.

It’s inconceivable that Tesla’s market share will ever rebound to the levels of recent years, and having a minor share is probably the sign of a healthy, competitive EV market. As Tim Eden writes, Australian consumers now have a choice of 100 different EVs, compared to just six seven years ago.

But the actual numbers will be interesting to see. Tesla’s sales dropped to a low of just 500 in April, putting the Model Y (280) and Model 3 (220) down to eighth and tenth spots respectively for the month.

That will almost certainly be a blip caused by the flow of logistics, and Model Y seems destined to remain the top selling EV for the whole year. And the 3,500 newly arrived EVs should be enough to post its best sales result since December last year, or even June last year.

But to what extent Model Y holds its lead, will be interesting to watch, as will the fortunes of the Model 3, whose refresh was launched early last year.

See also: New Tesla Model Y review: Worlds best selling EV is now even better, and it costs less

And: Australian electric vehicle sales by month and by model in 2025