Coalition threat to NVES is pandering to climate deniers and bearded ute-drivers

The federal Coalition under Peter Dutton has announced that, if they win government, they plan to remove penalties associated with the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard.

To be clear, this would require legislative changes to be passed by both houses of Parliament, something the coalition know would be impossible without an equally impossible landslide victory. So what’s going on here?

My analysis is that this is yet another improbable policy aimed to gain support from the right wing base, climate deniers and in particular males aged 18 -34 who have been trending rightwards for some time in most polling. I like to think of them as bearded ute drivers.

It is chilling that the coalition have dressed this up as a cost saving measure, presumably on the basis that vehicle importers at risk of incurring penalties under the NVES will no longer have to pass that additional cost on to consumers.

The reality is that most families buy second hand vehicles which are not affected by the NVES. These vehicles typically use around 40% more fuel than equivalent vehicles in the EU, and 20% more than those in the USA.

Without the NVES penalties, there is no incentive for importers to bring in their more efficient models, so new cars will burn more fuel and will continue to do so as they flow to the second hand market.

The car companies that import vehicles to Australia have had a long time to prepare for the NVES. Indeed, one of their complaints is about the lack of standardisation across markets increasing manufacturing complexity.

Why then do certain companies have manufacturing lines specifically turning out less efficient vehicles exclusively for the Australian market?

The companies complaining the most are those without developed plans for a low emissions future. There are grumblings about ceasing imports for several models already.

Is the NVES working? Broadly, yes already, with a continuing decline in fuel excise revenue, a boom in hybrid vehicles and a steady increase in the availability and sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as purchase costs have matched equivalent ICE vehicles several years ahead of most predictions.

A caveat on hybrids is that they are an interim technology with variable results for fuel efficiency depending on type and how they are driven. Legislation extending and progressively tightening the NVES beyond its end date is required to push for zero emissions vehicles.

Why does all this matter? Unless the NVES drives necessary change, Australians will continue to burn up to 40% more fuel to go the same distance as folks in other countries with emission standards, hardly something to support as a cost of living measure.

Even worse, more fuel burned means more toxic vehicle emissions increasing the substantial burden of disease these cause. A rough estimate is that deaths each year from vehicle emissions are around ten times the annual road toll.

Cities like London have taken measures to reduce emissions and have seen dramatic improvement in air quality and reduction in illness related to air pollution, especially respiratory illness in children.

The coalition’s plan to change the NVES is clearly a terrible idea which goes against the interests of ordinary Australians and points to their complete lack of interest in doing anything about vehicle emissions, soon to be our largest source of emissions.

Trying to sell rotten policy needs to be called out, regardless of what the intent might be. Australians deserve far better better from our elected representatives.

Always ask: “Qui bono?” (Google it).