Tesla CEO Elon Musk, left, and President Donald Trump attend a campaign event at the Butler Farm Show on Oct. 5, 2024, in Butler, Pa. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)
Leading transport analysts, including one notable Tesla “bull”, have downgraded their forecasts for Tesla sales in the current quarter, and the full year, blaming the impact of the consumer pushback against Elon Musk’s right wing politics and his highly visible and divisive role in the Trump Administration.
“We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly,” wrote JPMorgan analysts, led by Ryan Brinkman, in a report last week quoted by Quartz.
The JP Morgan analysts pointed to incidents in recent years, particularly in China where the likes of Hyundai, Toyota and Nissan suffered from boycotts as the result of geo-political tensions with South Korea and Japan. But these were short lived, and not of the international scale that is affecting Tesla.
The company’s EV sales have plunged in markets across the world, including in Europe – Germany, Norway, Span, Portugal, France and others – in Australia, and in key markets such as California, and in China.
JP Morgan has slashed its estimates for Tesla first quarter deliveries by 20 per cent from 444,000 to 355,000, while UBS has cut its forecasts to 367,000 vehicles from 437,000.
Tesla boosters have insisted the decline in sales is due to the consumer pause ahead of the release of the refreshed Model Y, and because of changing inventory levels. But while this is a factor, it is not the whole story – and it should be noted that the Model Y upgrade had already been factored in to prior forecasts by these same analysts.
“While the effect on Tesla sales may have been more minimal in the past, and hence more difficult to tease out from other factors such as rising competition, it appears to have grown more acute since Mr. Musk stepped into a more divisive new role in government,” the JPMorgan analysts said.
The assessments are highly significant. Tesla has been the transition story of the last decade, laying down challenges to the legacy auto, oil and electricity sectors through the release of its Model 3 and Model Y electric cars, and the Powerpack grid battery.
But the reaction to Musk’s role in the Trump administration, his promotion of far-right policies and political parties has provoked a backlash from consumers, corporates, and governments across the world – leading to boycotts, exclusions from company tenders, and widespread protests.
It has also precipitated a huge fall in Tesla’s share price, plunging by more than 50 per cent from its December peak and losing all the gains it made since the election of Trump last November, a victory largely funded by Musk himself.
The share price fall prompted extraordinary scenes at the White House, where Trump endorsed the Tesla cars (he had previously been highly critical of EVs), and declared he would buy one. He was followed by other far right commentators such as Tucker Carlson, and Israel prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking a Tesla contract to provide government cars.
Some analysts are not concerned. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, a noted Tesla bull, concedes that Tesla sales will likely fall over the year – and partly because of the souring sentiment around Tesla and the political prominence of Musk.
He conducted a survey of his clients, CNBC reports, that found 85 per cent of respondents believed Musk is having a negative or extremely negative impact on the stock. Only three per cent thought it was positive. More than 60 per cent believe Tesla delivery numbers will fall this year, and 20 per cent think this fall will be more than 10 per cent.
It follows similar surveys. According to Quartz, research and consulting firm Brand Finance estimated Tesla’s brand stood at $US43 billion in October 2024, down $US66.2 billion at the start of 2023, just after Musk started openly supporting Trump.
Electrek reports that a survey of more 100,000 Germans revealed that 94 per cent won’t buy a Tesla vehicle. Germany has been a key market for Tesla and it has its main European gigafactory in Berlin, but the pushback has been strong since his repeated endorsements of the Far Right AfD party.
Jonas, however, remains a Tesla bull and sees the fall as a buying opportunity, even if believes that Tesla EV sales – contrary to Musk’s predictions – will likely decline over the course of 2025. Jonas has long ascribed the value of Tesla in its AI and robotics, and says the car business itself accounts for just one fifth of his company valuation.
He says several events could serve as catalysts for the stock, including a planned unveil of Musk’s robotaxi trial in Austin, changes to federal regulations that govern autonomous vehicle technologies, and a possible AI/Humanoid day that would showcase the latest capabilities of Tesla’s Optimus robot.
Jonas maintains his Tesla price target of $US430 a share, with his bull case at $US800 and his bear case at $US200.
He’s not the only one bullish on AI. Analysts at Wedbush say autonomy and Optimus will represent 90 per cent of the valuation of the Tesla story, and it is putting a value of $US2 trillion on the company.
It also expects a lower cost sub-$US35,000 new model – dubbed by some as a downgraded Model Y – will drive pent-up electric vehicle consumer demand globally, and get Tesla “back on the growth track.”
Giles Parkinson is founder and editor of The Driven, and also edits and founded the Renew Economy and One Step Off The Grid web sites. He has been a journalist for nearly 40 years, is a former business and deputy editor of the Australian Financial Review, and owns a Tesla Model 3.
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What we have seen with DOGE is only the tip of the iceberg. There is an article on The Guardian that says:
"Page honoring Charles C Rogers for his Vietnam war service is now defunct with letters ‘DEI’ added to website address" This sounds suspiciously like the work of Musk's DOGE team. Who else would have the access and be childish enough to do it?
Trump's vendettas combined with his promise to "drain the swamp" added to musk's licence to slash and burn will result in america throwing out the bath, along with rest. Resulting in them going from filthy rich, as one poster on here recently desribed elon, to just filthy.
lmao at thinking they'll make anything profitable with their robotics and ai
Musk, like most obscenely rich people (hello to the pharoahs) wants to live forever.
And, like every other fool before him, believes that we are on the cusp of achieving actual immortality.
All built on slavery, so no change there.
If you are going to talk about something you should at least have some knowledge of the subject. Elon has talked about immortality specifically. You are incorrect in your assumptions. Go to the source rather than accepting the latest NPC propaganda upload.
"..changes to federal regulations that govern autonomous vehicle technologies .." will likely mean the US government added as a party to lawsuits where Tesla software is alleged to have caused harm.
Given that Trump and his mates are arguably governing "without due care and attention " in many changes they are making, I think a lawyer's picnic is on the way including but not limited to any changes to guidelines that benefit Musk and his companies.
Simple answer to that.
Rewrite the laws, or sack the lawyers.
America is just beginning to find out that abuse of power is not restricted to 'undemocratic' countries.
Trump and musk have so many supporters that they will allow anything, literally.
Yes. Rule of Law and Democracy are not the same thing.
We are witnessing de Tocqueville 's tyranny of the majority.
94% of German's say they would not consider buying a Tesla
Lucky 83% of Australians have said they will still consider buying a Tesla.
most of whom would have no idea what a Tesla was or definitely not the means to actually buy one. Not to mention the insignificant size of the Australian car market. so if you Telsa shareholders are banking on an Australian led recovery for Tesla them good luck. LOL
I doubt it, but even so, that would probably be a pretty trivial sentiment for before they go EV shopping and come home with any of a couple of dozen better value for money Asian EVs. Whether it's more tricked out and high spec for the same cost, the same quality for less or just one of the affordable ~$35k hatches because they are very much a real thing now.
& I’m guessing most of those live in SYDNAY?
People aren’t just peeved; they are viscerally disgusted by Musk’s increasingly obvious inhumanity. And even without that, his whole schtick has been to over-promise, under-deliver, brush away failures and claim others’ credit. Even the successes have relied on gouging investors and especially government assistance – Exhibit A being Tesla itself (when it was saved from bankruptcy and still in its reliance on carbon payments). Add to that his frustration for being regulated for things as clearly deserving of it as crashing rockets wherever he pleases and vicious union-busting and one doesn’t have to wonder why he has inserted himself into government. It is a big and probably foolish gamble – he has four years at the very most before the current backlash looks like nothing. Outside of Tesla, SpaceX and Starlink already looks very vulnerable here.
But on the various bits of Tesla:
Tesla was over-valued in a meme-stock way to begin with. It was not based on earnings as much as it on analysts just feeling the price would keep going up. That is a lot of reliance on sentiment to do with a man so viciously trashing that very thing.
Falling behind other OEMs on price, out of Asia particularly, is real. This applies to EVs and Powerwall alike. And its not just price, but the flourishing amount of options. That is a lot of shade for a refreshed Model Y to fight. It is the rule and not the exception that first-mover dominators in the early years of an industry fall down into the chasing pack. The idea that the Tesla stock price can rise or even stay steady on the fantasy of being an exception gets sillier with each increasingly fascistic day.
I assume this will apply to Megapacks too. Even if corporate purchasers might be less swayed by political distaste, and even if US-China trade shenanigans don’t mess things up, the chance that Tesla maintains any advantage in whatever takes a lead in post-lithium stationary storage chemistry can’t be too high.
I reckon people don’t actually want a humanoid robot in their home any more than we wanted an animated paperclip giving us advice in Word or a pop-up chatbot on a website when we just to find a phone number. Real life wants real people and actually effective tools, not gimmicks like C3PO (let’s face it, a ‘tool’ in another sense) or a walking Alexa with sad anime eyes bringing us a coffee.
I reckon driverless taxis won’t pan out any better than Musk’s Boring Company’s Hyperloop (or Tesla Solar Roof perhaps). Quite apart from opposition to the dehumanised tech and glitches, they just won’t end up cheaper, safer or more trusted than rideshare – a gig worker in a ~$40k EV with low ‘fuel’ costs using a relatively simple AI platform is a hard cost to beat. They will promise it and invest hugely but the path of enshittification means they need to replace the rideshare competition rather than live alongside it and then recoup early costs through price hikes (look up ‘enshittification’ if required, it is one of the best neologisms of our time).
Buy the dip!
why don't you buy some blood diamonds off Elon as well? I'm sure that his family still has heaps.
Rothschild said over 200 years ago, "Buy when there's blood running in the streets". Still true today.
Buy the dip-what?
This has to be one of the best illustrations of an NPC update so far.
Just remember people if you repeat the propaganda enough it becomes true.
Can anyone tell me where I can buy the “Make Orwell Fiction Again” merch?
As quickly and superficial as feelings went one way, they'll come back just as quickly.
Just as the 'wrong thing was said or done', as soon as the 'right thing is said or done', the tide will change.
Also, buy the dip.
a straight line to the bottom isn't a dip
“Also, buy the dip”
Cool! So can you tell me when the bottom of the dip is. Is it today? Tomorrow? Next week? Next month? When?
All the carefully garnered soft power that the USA has accumulated since WW2 will be gone after 4 years of Trump.
In the year to 14 March 2025, Tesla shares have gone UP 43.83%. Is this article is yet another Tesla hit job?
No. Any factual errors in the story?
Or do you think any negative news about Tesla should be censored, and only positive news stories allowed?
“Jonas maintains his Tesla price target of $US430 a share, with his bull case at $US800 and his bear case at $US200”
In other words, he has no idea, and almost regardless of what happens, he can say his prediction was correct! 😂
Maybe I should become an analyst! 🤣