Global EV sales heading for record 16.7 million sales in 2024, despite reports of slowdown

While claims of a slowdown in the demand for purely electric vehicles (EVs) dominate headlines, EV sales continue to increase and are heading for a record year in 2024.

In a presentation at the BloombergNEF Summit in London last week and a subsequent analysis published on Tuesday, BNEF analysts say EV sales are heading towards 16.7 million units in 2024, up from 13.9 million in 2023 and in line with the firm’s forecast at the start of the year.

Across the first six months of 2024, global EV sales increased by 26 per cent, while preliminary data suggests that sales increased around 30 per cent in September, slow than the previous years – which included a 33 per cent increase in 2023 and 60 per cent in 2022 – but off a higher base.

These numbers include both battery EV and plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV) models, which reflects one of the stories being told this year, with numerous companies ditching purely EV targets and refocusing, in the near term, on PHEVs.

Carmakers around the globe are adjusting EV targets to allow for increased demand for PHEVs, including Jaguar Land Rover, Volvo, BMW, Toyota, Ford, and General Motors. In fact, according to an fDi Intelligence report in September, “at least 15 well-known car brands have delayed their switch to all-electric vehicles and launch of new EV models”.

Hybrid sales in China, the world’s largest and fastest growing market for electrified vehicles, have also ramped up recently. According to BNEF, retail BEV sales in China are up 18 per cent so far this year, while total plug-in sales are up 37 per cent.

Elsewhere, in countries like Japan and Germany – home to some of the largest automakers in the world – sales of EVs have declined. In Germany, for example, BNEF’s figures show that EV sales plunged 61 per cent in August.

However, while the headline looks bad, the reality is a little more complicated. Specifically, August 2023 experienced a “significant pull-forward in sales ahead of a subsidy cut, distorting the year-over-year comparison.”

Similarly, BNEF’s head of advanced transport, Colin McKerracher, described gauging EV demand in Europe right now as “complicated” due to the fact that “automakers are holding off launching more affordable EV models until 2025, when vehicle CO2 targets across the bloc toughen again.”

Because they are already generally compliant with 2024 targets, automakers are under very little pressure to sell additional EVs this year.

This sort of behaviour was also seen in 2019 ahead of the 2020 tightening of emissions standard which saw a slowdown in EV sales in 2019 ahead of a substantial increase in 2020.

“We’re likely to see history repeat in Europe, with automakers prepping more affordable models like the new Renault 5, Hyundai Inster, Fiat Grande Panda, Skoda Epiq and VW ID2.all,” said McKerracher.

Another issue causing sluggish EV demand in Europe is what McKerracher describes as “automakers trying to recoup the full development costs of their EV platforms across relatively low sales volumes.”

“The Fiat 500e for example, is priced at an almost €12,000 ($13,000) premium to the standard Fiat 500, despite only having around €3,000 worth of batteries in it, based on BNEF analysis,” said McKerracher.

“The internal combustion version of the Fiat 500 costs less than €19,000. Asking mass market consumers to pay over 60% more than that to go electric was never going to be a winning strategy.”