Californian ICE vehicle registrations down 30% from peak, thanks to EVs

Registrations of internal combustion engine vehicles (including hybrids and plugin hybrids) in the US state of California are down 30% since their peak of just under 2 million in 2016, according to new research from Wolf Richter.

The analysis shows ICE vehicle registrations dropping by around 600,000 units while EV registrations have grown by almost 400,000 units over roughly the same period. California’s plunging petrol and diesel car registrations come as EV market share in the state hit a record 21.4% in 2023.

The high uptake of EVs in the United States’ most populous state has also contributed to the continued decline in per-capita fuel consumption in the US.

Richter says “Gasoline demand has a long term structural problem in the US” which is plunging per-capita demand, originally driven by more fuel efficient vehicles and now accelerating because of EV uptake.

“Per-capita gasoline consumption has plunged by 15% from 2003 and by 21% from 1978.” says Richter.

The decline in per-capita gasoline consumption will really start to accelerate once EV uptake approaches 100% signalling a 5-10% annual drop in ICE vehicles per year as end-of-life ICE vehicles are no longer replaced with new ones.