Tony Seba and Akio Toyoda
Toyota chairman and the grandson of the company’s founder, Akio Toyoda, has told Toyota’s in-house publication Toyota Times that he still believes internal combustion engine vehicles will continue to make up a significant share of new vehicles well into the future.
“No matter how much progress BEVs [Battery Electric Vehicles] make, I think they will still only have a 30% market share.” Toyoda told Toyota Times earlier this week.
“Then, the remaining 70% will be HEVs [Hybrids], FCEVs [Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles], and hydrogen engines. And I think engine cars will definitely remain.”
Toyoda’s prediction that global EV market share won’t exceed 30% comes just two weeks after technology researcher and futurist Tony Seba posted on X that new NEV (New Energy Vehicles) sales in China reached 40% market share in November. A prediction that he had made on The Driven podcast six months earlier in May.
Some 2.08 million passenger cars were sold in China in November 2023 with 841,000 NEVs (New Energy Vehicles) making up 40.4% of all new vehicles sold. The NEV sales breakdown includes 552,000 BEVs making up 26.5% of all new passenger sales and 289,000 PHEVs making up 13.9%.
With BEVs alone already making up almost 30% in the world’s largest car market, the Toyota chairman’s comments seem disconnected from reality. Toyoda’s prediction appears to be more wishful thinking than any kind of serious market analysis as company continues to lag far behind on pure electric vehicle manufacturing.
With the world’s largest EV manufacturers Tesla and BYD smashing record production numbers again in 2023, there’s really no logical reason why global BEV market share will suddenly stop growing once it reaches 30%.
With global EV market share continuing to grow – despite headwinds in the US and Europe and some backtracking on EVs by the traditional US car giants – and hydrogen powered vehicles as rare as unicorns, it’s difficult to take Toyoda seriously.
Daniel Bleakley is a clean technology researcher and advocate with a background in engineering and business. He has a strong interest in electric vehicles, renewable energy, manufacturing and public policy.
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