The transition to electric transport is in part dependent on policy as well as public acceptance. Current policies and public perceptions are currently based on a transport sector that is based on liquid fossil fuels. Policies that reflect and support the switch away from these therefore need to be carefully designed, as well as maintained over the longer term.
Victoria with its EV Road Tax has been one exemplar in how not to design EV policies that support the transition to zero emission vehicles. However it is now not alone. The UK seems to have decided to try a different tack in ways to put people off buying an electric over an ICE vehicle as their next car.
Over there, the Conservative government has decided to shift its previously stated 2030 end-date for ICE vehicle sales to 2035. A survey conducted just before and after that announcement has now seen a drop in UK buyer intentions for their next vehicle.
Immediately before the policy U-turn, around 42% of UK drivers said they would move away from petrol or diesel for their next vehicle. This number had been slowly but steadily rising from 33% in 2020 when the survey question was first asked.
Immediately after the switch to 2035, that percentage dropped to 37% and the proportion who definitely were going to by petrol or diesel rose from 34% to 36%.
On the brighter side, some UK drivers saw a silver lining from the announcement in terms of the cost of vehicles. 38% said the announcement made them more likely to buy a second-hand EV as they thought the demand will drop following the announcement and prices will come down.
Small numbers in terms of the overall picture perhaps – but it is an indication of how seemingly small charges or policy changes can affect public perceptions in a time of change.
In relation to Victoria’s EV road tax, the addition of an ongoing charge on what is still the more expensive (but environmentally more friendly) technology has sown doubt in some Victorians minds about how much EVs cost to run, as well as the Victorian government’s long-term intentions.
This was not helped by the unannounced dropping in Victoria’s latest budget of the Victorian EV purchase subsidies long before the allocation was used up, nor by their quietly raising the per kilometre EV tax rate from 2.6 to 2.8 cents for full BEVs and from 2.1 to 2.3 cents for PHEVs.
NSW has now followed suit, dropping its rebates from the end of 2023, and confirming the introduction of its own road tax from 2027.
In the end, the UK decision is unlikely to have much effect on the outcome of the EV transition: plug-in EVs now make up one in four new car sales in the UK, plus many European manufacturers have already set 2030 (or earlier) as their end-date for ICE vehicle manufacture.
The UK move can be seen as perhaps more of a thought-bubble designed to pander to the more conservative elements of their rapidly diminishing voter base before the next election.
The UK policy change and the resultant survey results do serve as a warning to any government that EV policies need to be well thought through, properly communicated and consistently maintained.
If this isn’t done, the public is quite rightly going to react with a ‘wait and see’ approach. That outcome though is not conducive to a quick and orderly transition to a zero emission economy.
