Tesla Master Plan 3
Tesla has released a 41 page Master Plan 3 detailing what it will take for the world to transition away from fossil fuels to a fully sustainable clean economy, and deliver “Sustainable Energy for All of Earth”.
The plan provides details on re-powering the existing grid with renewables, switching to EVs, switching to heat pumps in residential, business & industry applications, electrifying high temperature heat delivery and hydrogen, sustainably fuel planes & boats and as well as decarbonising manufacturing.
The paper outlines the assumptions, sources and calculations behind Tesla’s recent “Investor Day” event which presented a path for the world’s transition to clean technology.
“This paper finds a sustainable energy economy is technically feasible and requires less investment and less material extraction than continuing today’s unsustainable energy economy,” notes the paper.
The plan’s top line numbers show that the world will need 240 terawatt-hours of storage, 30 terawatts of renewable energy and that the transition would cost just 10% of the world’s 2022 GDP.
The plan provides 6 steps needed to fully electrify the economy and completely eliminate fossil fuel use.
The analysis shows a sankey diagram of the world’s current energy flows from fossil fuel and renewable energy sources through to end energy use in industry, transport residential and commercial consumption.
“According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2019 World Energy Balances, the global primary energy supply is 165 PWh/ year (petawatt-hours per year), and total fossil fuel supply is 134PWh/year. 37% (61PWh) is consumed before making it to the end consumer.”
The diagram shows that the world’s total energy supply of 165.2 PWh is comprised of 31.5 PWh of renewables and biomass (23.5%) and 133.7 PWh of fossil fuels (80.9%).
Because fossil fuels are so woefully inefficient, the current fossil fuel heavy system produces an enormous amount of wasted energy.
On the consumption end of the diagram, just 59.5 PWh (36%) of energy is going into useful work and heat while a staggering 105.7 PWh (64%) is lost through waste heat. These losses are the unavoidable thermodynamic energy losses that are inherent in burning fossil fuels.
On the energy losses the plan notes: “This includes the fossil fuel industries’ self-consumption during extraction/refining, and transformation losses during electricity generation. Another 27% (44PWh) is lost by inefficient end-uses such as internal combustion engine vehicles and natural gas furnaces.”
An example of the fossil fuel industry’s “self-consumption” of energy during extraction/refining is the liquefaction process of converting fossil gas into liquefied gas in order to ship it around the world.
This liquefaction process alone consumes a staggering 25% of the energy in all liquified gas. This is long before the gas is ultimately burned which also results in massive losses.
The plan notes that when calculating the total amount of clean energy required to transition the world away from fossil fuels, the huge amounts of lost energy inherent in fossil fuels mean that the total renewable energy required to achieve the same end use energy is much less than the current system requirements.
“In an electrified economy with sustainably generated energy, most of the upstream losses associated with mining, refining and burning fuels to create electricity are eliminated, as are the downstream losses associated with non-electric end-uses.”
The plan shows that the world’s current energy needs of 165.2 PWh could be reduced to just 113.4 PWh through a complete transition to renewable energy and battery storage based economy.
This would reduce total system energy losses from 64% to just 9.5% (10.8 PWh).
On the electrification of transport, the paper shows that electric vehicles are 4 to 5 times more efficient at converting source energy into useful work (movement).
“Electric vehicles are approximately 5x more efficient than internal combustion engine vehicles due to higher powertrain efficiency, regenerative braking capability, and optimized platform design. This ratio holds true across passenger vehicles, light duty trucks, and Class 8 semis,” notes the paper.
Internal combustion engine vehicles are whats known as “Carnot cycle engines” which generally have a thermodynamic limit of around 20%. What this means in practice is that for every 1000ml of petrol or diesel you put into your car, just 200ml goes towards actually moving the car while 800ml is wasted through heat and noise losses.
Imagine that. 80% of all the money you’ve ever spent fuelling your car has literally just been lost to hot air and noise.
To really hammer this point home, Tesla provide a graph showing the energy consumption in watt-hours per mile of a fully electric Tesla Model 3 compared to a petrol Toyota Corolla. A Corolla uses four times the amount of energy to drive the same distance as a Tesla Model 3.
Tesla also provide a breakdown of the what the world’s fully electric vehicle fleet may look like. The breakdown includes vehicle types and volumes as well as total battery requirements to replace 1.4 billion petrol and diesel cars currently in operation globally.
“Today there are 1.4B vehicles globally and annual passenger vehicle production of ~85M vehicles, according to OICA. Based on pack size assumptions, the vehicle fleet will require 112 TWh of batteries. Autonomy has potential to reduce the global fleet, and annual production required, through improved vehicle utilization.” notes the paper.
The global vehicle fleet breakdown includes a column titled “Tesla Equivalent” for each vehicle category. TBD (to be determined) is shown in this column for compact, commercial/passenger vans and busses indicating that Tesla intends on producing these vehicle types in future.
The graphic below which was also shown during Tesla’s Investor Day last month shows a veiled 700 million unit vehicle which is presumably the 686 million unit “compact” in the table above.
The veiled vehicle under the 300 million unit column below is presumably a commercial/passenger van of which the table above says 163 million units are required along with 149 million large sedans, SUVs and trucks.
The Tesla compact and van models will presumably be made on Tesla’s 3rd generation platform which the company showcased during the 4 hour Investor Day event. During the event Tesla said that the Gen 3 platform will enable it to cut cost of production by 50% per vehicle thanks to design and manufacturing breakthroughs.
While there is no indication that Tesla intends on someday manufacturing electric ships and planes the Master Plan 3 does provide analysis on how aviation and shipping could be also be decarbonised.
“With 2.1PWh of annual demand, if ships charge ~70 times per year on average, and charge to 75% of capacity each time, then 40TWh of batteries are needed to electrify the ocean fleet.
“The assumption is 33% of the fleet will require a higher density Nickel and Manganese based cathode, and 67% of the fleet will only require a lower energy density LFP cathode. For aviation, if 20% of the ~15,000 narrow body plane fleet is electrified with 7MWh packs, then 0.02TWh of batteries will be required.”
While aviation and shipping have long been considered the most difficult forms of transport to electrify, recent battery technology breakthroughs which report to increase battery energy density by as much as 4 times suggest that ships and planes may also soon be able to go fully electric.
The Driven’s take: Tesla’s Master Plan 3 shows that a decarbonised economy is technically possible. The engineering solutions are all there and ready to be scaled up and rolled out.
The only barrier holding us back from a rapid transition is the incumbent fossil fuel industry’s relentless attempts to obstruct and suppress the clean technology revolution that threatens their monopoly on the global energy supply chain.
If policy makers can stand up to the fossil fuel industry and implement policies that accelerate the transition, the world has a chance of limiting the future catastrophic effects of climate change.
Daniel Bleakley is a clean technology researcher and advocate with a background in engineering and business. He has a strong interest in electric vehicles, renewable energy, manufacturing and public policy.
First 6-seater Tesla Model Y spotted uncovered in China with rumoured launch for Australia in…
Infrastructure and transport groups agree on a road-user charge as a concept, but disagree on…
Xpeng P7 breaks 24 hours EV endurance testing record, driving almost 4,000 km with speeds…
Tesla brings back free lifetime supercharging on select models in one key market.
Geely quickly expands its dealer network in Australia after strong sales off the back of…
Zeekr's 7X rakes in over 1,000 pre-orders in first 7 days as first deliveries to…