Europe confirms 2035 petrol and diesel new car ban that could spell trouble for Australia

The world’s second largest car market has confirmed it will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 after the European Parliament passed a law requiring carmakers to achieve a 100% cut in CO2 emissions from all new cars.

The new law which was proposed last year and includes the EU’s 27 member states, sends a clear signal to legacy automakers that they must shift to all-electric vehicles, or watch their markets vanish.

The law also includes an interim 2030 limit of a 55% cut in CO2 emissions (compared to 2021 levels). The current target of 37.5% has helped drive a recent surge in EV uptake across European countries.

While this is great news for the global shift to EVs, it could have a negative effect on Australia’s EV uptake unless the Australian government also moves to strengthen its vehicle emissions standards or risk becoming a dumping ground for old petrol and diesel cars.

Legacy automakers will exploit countries with weak policies

As EV market share continues to grow around the world, legacy carmakers like Toyota, who refuse to produce EVs at scale, will be focused on exploiting countries like Australia and Russia who still don’t have vehicle emission standards.

This graph below from European auto analyst Matthias Schmidt shows how far Toyota is behind the rest of the market in Europe. He says the EU vote “hammers the nail into the internal combustion engine coffin.”

Electric vehicles make up just 0.2% of Toyota’s global production and with no plans to launch an EV range until 2027, Toyota will see its addressable market in Europe continue to shrink dramatically thanks to the new law.

Toyota has known about this for some time and has been lobbying governments in the US and Australia to water down policies that would accelerate the transition away from petrol and diesel cars.

Just last week Toyota was slammed for trying to influence the Australian government to include loopholes such as “super credits” and “off-cycle credits” in its fuel efficiency standards, as part of its submission to the government’s National Electric Vehicle Strategy.

Many critics say that Australia should follow the New Zealand vehicle emissions model which doesn’t include any super credits or off-cycle credit loopholes.

Australians health at risk as we fall further behind

The European 2035 ban puts Australia even further behind in the race to transition to electric transport.

A recent study in California using real-world data has proven that increases in EV uptake reduces air pollution and associated respiratory illnesses. The study showed that just a 2% increase in EV fleet penetration resulted in detectable reductions of air pollution and respiratory illnesses.

See: World first study shows how EVs cut pollution levels and reduce costly health problems

By failing to keep up with Europe’s pro EV policies, the Australian government is condemning Australians and their children to higher rates of air pollution in Australian cities.

If the Australian government is serious about the electric vehicle revolution and serious about improving the health of all Australians, it will ignore companies like Toyota and follow the European Union and countries like New Zealand in implementing a strong National Electric Vehicle Strategy including strong water-tight vehicle emission standards.