“Not a single year to lose:” Auto industry is pushing world well beyond 1.5°C

A joint report from electric vehicle companies Rivian and Polestar says that without urgent action to slash transport emissions, the global automotive industry will crash through its share of the global carbon budget that is designed to keep global temperature increase below 1.5°C.

The report, prepared by Kearney, says that the global auto industry’s net-zero by 2050 carbon budget will be completely spent by 2035, and is heading to exceed its allocation by 75 per cent by 2050, undoing much of the good work in the electricity sector and elsewhere.

The report notes that passenger vehicles contribute to 15% of total global greenhouse gas emissions, and notes the steps taken over the past decade to decarbonise, mostly on electrification. But it says this must accelerate rapidly to stay in line with the 1.5°C target.

To get there, the Kearney report says, electric vehicles need to account for nearly 100 per cent of all new car sales by 2032, the electricity grid needs to be at or near zero emissions by 2033, and the manufacturing of cars and components needs to cut emissions by 81 per cent by 2032.

“This is an enormous task,” the report says. “The scale of the challenge is not to be underestimated.”

Polestar and Rivian, who commissioned the report, say it is important to understand that pulling just one or two levers in isolation will be insufficient, and would only reduce the overshoot (see graph above).

“Collective action from automakers is needed on all three levers, in parallel, at a global level,” it says. But clearly, that is not the case, particularly with the biggest car makers such as Toyota looking to slow down the switch to EVs and

“Car companies may be on different paths when it comes to brand, design, and business strategies, and some won’t even admit that the road to the future is electric,” says Fredrika Klarén, Polestar’s head of sustainability.

“I believe it is, and that the climate crisis is a shared responsibility, and we must look beyond tailpipe emissions. This report makes clear the importance of acting now and together.

“There’s a clear cost to inaction, but there’s also a financial opportunity for innovators who find new answers to the challenges we face.”

The Kearney report looks at “well-to-wheel” emissions of the projected passenger vehicle fleet globally to 2050 and explores the monumental challenges the industry faces.

The report outlines the three key “levers” that must be pulled collectively by the industry to accelerate the transition and minimise the risk of climate catastrophe. The report notes that pulling just one or two of the three levers in isolation will result in failure and that all three must be pulled in order for the auto industry to fulfil its obligation to keep us below 1.5 degrees.

• Lever 1: Fully switch to BEVs across the entire global car fleet.
• Lever 2: Fully powering the exclusive BEV fleet with fossil-free energy.
• Lever 3: Deliver significant advances in sustainable production and manufacturing.

The report notes that in a highly competitive industry, although competition is healthy the automotive industry should redefine where to compete and where to collaborate to get the job done.

The report’s “well to wheel” analysis which looks at the entire lifecycle, shows that fuel consumption for petrol and diesel cars is by far the biggest contributor to passenger car emissions at 61%.

Also 20% of emissions currently come from the production of fuel and electricity used to power passeger cars meaning that switching to 100% renewable energy would cut emissions by a further 20% provided the fleet is 100% electric.

Significant gains can also be made in vehicle manufacturing which contributes 16% of over all emissions. Moving to 100% renewables and using “green steel” and other less carbon intensive materials in the manufacturing process could make a significant contribution.

“Cars and light commercial vehicles alone make up over 60 per cent of Australia’s transport pollution. This is largely due to our petrol-guzzling cars which produce up to 40 percent more carbon dioxide than their European counterparts.”

Dr Tidemann also commented on the urgency for policy makers to encourage Australians to move away from car ownership completely.

“Transforming how we get around is also critical, because electrifying cars will not entirely cut transport emissions. Far too many Australians are reliant on cars because our public and active transport infrastructure isn’t up to scratch.

“Investment in clean public and active transport options to give Australians more reliable and affordable travel options must be part of the solution.”