Elon Musk promises more Model Ys as wait times blow out to 2023

“We’re working on accelerating RHD Model Y production. Didn’t expect demand to be so high!” said Elon Musk on Monday after it was pointed out on Twitter that wait times for the Model Y in Australia had been pushed back twice since orders went live on Friday.

This, of course, has led to loads of speculation about how many orders Tesla has already taken for the Model Y in Australia.

Some say they’ve heard 9,000 orders as of Friday, and we conservatively guess-timated at least 10,000 orders may have been taken as of Saturday. Some have used the RN or reservation numbers as a guide, but this may include orders from New Zealand and Japan that opened on the sdame day.

But it is possible to make a more educated estimate by breaking down some simple numbers based on the UK market, and China Model Y export history.

Model Y sales in the UK

The Model Y launched in the UK – a fellow right-hand-drive market – in February.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2022, there were 7,774 Model Ys delivered to customers in the UK. The majority of these were unsurprisingly delivered in March, at the end of the quarter. As reported by The Driven in April, 6,464 Model Ys were delivered in March.

Also of note is the fact that the split between Model 3 and Model Y sales in the UK in March 50/50. Just seven fewer Model 3s (6,457) were delivered in March compared to the Model Y. In the entire quarter, there was just one less Model 3 delivered than Model Y (7,774).

UK versus Australia EV market

Although the UK auto market is almost 2.3 times the size of the Australian market, its EV market was for the first quarter 1.8 times the size (taking only the Model 3 into account: 7,774/4,417 = 1.76).

Considering the fact Australia has been considered a laggard on the global EV market, that is actually somewhat encouraging. It means the appetite for EVs in Australia has finally increased to the point that electric car uptake will start to look similar to sibling markets.

And, supply of EVs – albeit only by Tesla for the moment – is also looking up.

Tesla China exports

We can also take into consideration the fact that until China went into lockdown, Tesla was exporting up to 40,000 EVs a month – almost two-thirds of its production capacity – to global markets.

Until Giga Berlin opened in March, Tesla’s Shanghai factory was exporting cars to Europe as well. Now that Giga Berlin in ramping up production, this has opened up inventory for markets like Australia.

This, combined with the UK data above, indicates we could see a doubling of Tesla imports as Shanghai production ramps back up.

Mind you, as recently as late May, Tesla was still exporting cars by the thousands to Europe, as it attested itself in this retweet:

Model 3 orders cancelled, pulling wait times back

While just 200 or so Model 3s have been shipped to Australia in the current quarter, it is thought that this could increase to as many as 7,000 as Tesla makes a bid to fill orders for waiting customers.

In the fourth quarter, this could drop back to first-quarter numbers of 4,400-4,500 units.

But, the wait time for the Model 3 has now dropped back from 9-12 months to just 7-10 months. This indicates that as many as 1,200 Tesla customers may have cancelled Model 3 orders in order to switch to a Model Y (we have heard of this anecdotally also in forums).

Model Y wait times

When the Model Y first went on sale on Friday, delivery estimates for the RWD variants were “Aug-Nov 2022” and “late 2022” for the Performance variant (unlike other markets, the Long Range is not on sale locally for now).

Now, wait times sit at “Feb-May 2023” for both variants.

Therefore, we could expect the following numbers of Model Y to be delivered in the coming quarters:

• RWD Q3 to be 1,200
• RWD Q4 to be 3,200
• Performance Q4 to be 1,300
• Combined Model Y Q1 2023 to be 5,500

This puts our order estimate at 11,200 cars.

Other Model Y production notes

It’s also worth considering the fact that the Model Y is easier and cheaper to make than the Model 3. This is because it is made using the GigaPress, a giant casting machine that stamps rear and front pieces for the Model Y like a toy car manufacturer.

Therefore, for new Model Y markets, future export production may aim to be around 60% Model Y and 40% Model 3 mix.