In 2021 Elon Musk predicted Tesla’s newest model, the Model Y to “possibly be” the best selling car in the world by the end of 2022.
New sales data from the world’s biggest market – China – in the first 4 months of 2022 suggests a move in that direction. Importantly, the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling premium SUV in China despite plummeting sales due to Covid-19 shutdowns.
Therefore, with production pressures due to shutdowns and parts shortages, what impact will that have on the Australian launch of this hugely popular EV?
Tesla Model Y extends sales lead in world’s biggest car market
Newly released data from the world’s biggest car market (China) confirmed that the Tesla Model Y was the best selling premium SUV in 2022 so far with over 75,614 cars ending up on their roads in the first four months of the year.
That was quite a lead above the next best-selling cars in the segment, Mercedes Benz GLC and the BMW X3. There was a gap of at least 21,000 units between the Model Y and the Mercedes Benz GLC in the first four months.
This is quite surprising considering Tesla Model Y sales in April 2022 in the same market.
April (the start of the second quarter) is generally a lower sales month in China for Tesla. This is because most production is for export markets like Australia.
Tesla Model Y sales have been further impacted due to a significantly lower number of cars being produced at Tesla’s Shanghai factory after a slow return to production at the end of April.
The Shanghai factory produced and sold only 960 cars in April but overall still led the premium SUV segment in China for the first four months of 2022.
Tesla Model Y launch date yet to be confirmed
In April, the order page for the highly anticipated Tesla Model Y EV briefly went online. At least one prospective Australian buyer processed an order before it was taken back down.
Tesla later contacted the customer to arrange a refund.
Since then, the order page has said “stay updated”, and invites interested buyers to leave their email address for future Tesla Model Y launch updates.
The uncertainty around official orders for Australian customers still looms as parts supply issues surface after the recent shutdown in Shanghai due to the pandemic.
Global demand will impact Australian Tesla Model Y deliveries
Calendar 2022 has seen a huge rise in demand for EVs here in Australia. SUVs easily outstrip most other types of cars on our roads. Combining both of these factors with the increasing fuel price just means that the biggest bottleneck is supply.
Elon Musk himself acknowledged that earlier this week and warned that Tesla may stop taking orders due to global production and shipping shortages.
This has a direct impact on the Australian market and explains part of the reason why we can’t order a Model Y just yet.
Chinese buyers also love the larger space Model Y offers and the local market, being the biggest EV market in the world, are happy to pay a premium to drive this SUV over any other premium SUV model. This trend is not going to change anytime soon.
Sales data from China, Europe and the US in 2022 backs Elon Musk’s prediction that the Tesla Model Y will be a huge success. However, it may not be the best selling car this year should production pressures continue.
Once the orders open, carloop predicts that Tesla will sell in excess of 19,000 Tesla Model Ys in the first 12 months given the huge demand for spacious EVs in Australia. Not many will get here before the start of 2023 if Tesla Model 3 reservations are anything to go by.
Overall, in the next 12 months, we will see a much larger swing in uptake of EVs across Australia. But first, carmakers need to secure enough cars for the local market.
Riz is the founder of carloop based in Melbourne, specialising in Australian EV data, insight reports and trends. He is a mechanical engineer who spent the first 7 years of his career building transport infrastructure before starting carloop. He has a passion for cars, particularly EVs and wants to help reduce transport emissions in Australia. He currently drives a red Tesla Model 3.