EY says tipping points for electric car sales will be five years earlier than thought

Electric vehicle (EV) sales across the United States, China, and Europe, will dominate all other engine model sales five years sooner than previously expected, according to new research published by consultancy Ernst & Young (EY).

EY launched its new EY Mobility Lens Forecaster analysis, an AI-powered forecast modelling tool that the global consultancy claim provides an outlook for the supply and demand of mobility products and services through to 2050.

According to the new report, combined electric vehicle sales across the United States, China, and Europe will outstrip all other engine sales by 2033. By region, EV sales in Europe will surpass those of other engine models by 2028, a trend which will be repeated in China by 2033 and in the United States by 2036.

Moreover, by 2045, the new modelling expects non-EV sales to shrink to less than 1% of overall sales.

Unsurprisingly – as has been the case for much technological innovation and growth over the last decade – Europe will lead the way in terms of EV sales volume until 2031, at which point China will take the lead through to 2050.

“A mix of changing consumer attitudes, ambitious climate-focused regulations and technology evolution is about to change the landscape of vehicle buying forever,” said Randall Miller, EY Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility Leader.

“While the automotive industry has begun to more fully embrace the move toward electrification, the impact of this seismic shift is arriving sooner than many expected.

“This new outlook also has implications for governments and energy industries in terms of infrastructure and electricity generation and storage, and forward-looking organizations are already using this data to help ensure a smooth transition to this new EV-dominated market, which will be here much sooner than expected.”

Maybe the most interesting anecdote from EY’s new AI-powered Mobility Lens Forecaster is the prediction that, as the planet makes its way out from under the shadow of the global COVID-19 pandemic, many of those who had rejected vehicle ownership in favour of ridesharing and public transport are changing their minds.