Tesla will report its second quarter earnings on Wednesday (Thursday morning Australia time) and along with news of sales and earnings we can now also anticipate something big on the Model Y.
Tesla started official deliveries in March of the Model Y electric crossover, which CEO and co-founder Elon Musk has said will easily outsell its stablemate, the Model 3.
With Fremont production now well underway, Tesla is also busily constructing Phase II of its Shanghai Gigafactory, where it will also make the Model Y crossover, which costs from $US49,990 ($A71,118 converted) for the Long Range and $US59,990 ($A85,344 cconverted) for the Performance in the US.
On Monday, Musk stated on Twitter in response to a question about Model Y sales in Asia that he will discuss this on Wednesday’s earnings call.
“Lots to talk about!” said Musk.
Will discuss on Wed earnings call. Lots to talk about!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 19, 2020
According to Global VP for Tesla China, Grace Tao, the China-made Model Y will go into volume production in Q1 2021.
This may mean that Musk might reveal that Tesla will be able to start producing the Model Y in low volumes as soon as the end of the third quarter.
Once the Model Y goes into production in Shanghai, if it proves as popular as Musk hopes, it will add even more sauce to the growth story that has Tesla shares now sitting at more than $US1,600 ($A2,276) after market close on Monday after yet another 10 per cent jump in value.
As noted by informed Twitter commentator @Ray4Tesla, who tracks Tesla news in China, SUVs are hugely popular – something he thinks will bode well for the Model Y in China.
SUV market in 🇨🇳 is huge, which should bode well for #ModelY. In 2019, over 20 mil passenger vehicles were sold including over 9 mil SUVs. If the base version is priced below ¥300k/$42k, as predicted by industry watchers, Model Y will def be a hot seller, dwarfing M3 sales. pic.twitter.com/Sb1CAbKELt
— Ray (@ray4tesla) May 29, 2020
The Model Y has been available for order in China since early June, but the “base” Standard Range Plus is not listed. The Long Range Model Y is priced from ¥488,000 ($A64,777 converted) and the Performance variant is priced from Â¥535,000 ($A71,015).
How many Model Ys have been delivered this quarter are unknown, as Tesla combines Model 3 and Model Y sales in its delivery reporting.
Having outdone analyst expectations by delivering more than 90,000 electric cars in the second quarter of 2020 according to company communications in early July, how many Model Ys have been delivered is at best a guess.
@TroyTeslike, a Tesla delivery estimator who issues estimates and calculations via Twitter, thinks that the Tesla Model Y has already outsold the Model 3 and that the third quarter will see it outsell the 3, S and X combined.
His figures are based on global sales less European and Asia-Pacific sales, and that although his numbers are at best an estimate he hopes that the Wednesday (US time) earnings call will confirm his calculations.
Based on my calculation, Tesla delivered more Model Ys in the US in Q2 2020 than Model 3s despite the $6K higher price at the time. The price difference is $3K since 11 July.
In Q3 and Q4, I expect Model Y to exceed Model S, X, and 3 combined. pic.twitter.com/Q08VH8FHiM
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) July 20, 2020
