The Tesla Cybertruck beats other utility trucks such as the Ford F-150 on value and will maintain its value far beyond competitors, analysis by investment advisory firm Ark Invest suggests.
The Cybertruck, unveiled in late November by Tesla CEO and co-founder Elon Musk, breaks all the rules of traditional utility truck design (known as utes in Australia and trucks in the US).
Views have been sharply divided about the cold-rolled, ultra-hard steel exoskeleton and the choice of a polygonal, “cyberpunk” look, and the short-sellers that have long targeted Tesla stock have fired up their ammunition again.
Even so, the Cybertruck has garnered more than 250,000 fully refundable pre-orders (at a cost of $US100, or $A150 in Australia) since it was unveiled last month.
Now, analysts at Ark Invest, including Tesla bull Cathie Wood, say that the Cybertruck “far surpasses” other utes and will hold more of its value than other vehicles.
Wood is unashamedly pro-Tesla – her bull case for Tesla stock is currently $US4,000, or $A5,870, for a five year outlook. That’s more than 10-times the current value of the stock, which she holds in her own portfolio.
On the Cybertruck, Wood told US news agency CNBC on Monday (US time), “We’ve analyzed it from many different angles…it far surpasses other trucks.”
Referencing fellow Ark Invest analyst Sam Korus, who has published a series of charts on Twitter comparing the Cybertruck and the F-150, she says, “There’s just no comparison.”
Korus’ charts, which can be seen via this thread below, suggest that by the time the $US39,990 ($A58,696 converted) single motor Cybertruck launches it will in fact be cheaper than the comparable 2.7 litre Ford F-150 Supercrew.
On three other measurements – cost per horsepower, per torque, and per cargo space – the cheapest Cybertruck beats the F-150. It only comes in higher than the F-150 on towing capacity.
1/ Cybertruck thread
Forget about price parity,
when the Cybertruck launches it should be sticker price cheaper than the comparable F150. pic.twitter.com/ReBAZrPUPh— Sam Korus (@skorusARK) December 4, 2019
Even the most expensive version of the Cybertruck – the $US69,990 ($A102,730 converted) tri-motor – will beat a top-of-the-range 3.5 litre F-150 Raptor, says Korus.
“This isn’t even taking into account total cost of ownership and gas savings,” he notes.
3/ Even Tesla's most expensive option offers superior $ for value. This isn't even taking into account total cost of ownership and gas savings. pic.twitter.com/CeFMPufHau
— Sam Korus (@skorusARK) December 4, 2019
Off-road, it looks as if the Cybertruck will also beat the F-150 hands down, with superior measurements on ground clearance, angle of approach and angle of departure.
5/ The Cybertruck seems to be the ultimate off-road package. pic.twitter.com/iil85c213Y
— Sam Korus (@skorusARK) December 4, 2019
Korus has also suggested that based on data from US-based car valuation firm Kelley Blue Book that the Model 3 has a 69.3% 3-year resale value compared against the 51.2% average in its class, and considering that best in class utility trucks hold 66.5% value over 3 years in average, the Cybertruck could hold as much as 84.6% of its value over 3 years.
Best in class trucks retain 66.5% of their value after 3 years.
Best in class cars retain 51.2% over the same timeframe.
KBB estimates Model 3 retains 69.3%.
Assuming that delta remains the same, the Cybertruck could maintain 84.6% of its value after 3 years. pic.twitter.com/MoZ6ibsFA7
— Sam Korus (@skorusARK) December 5, 2019
But even though Tesla has taken some quarter of a million pre-orders, will the Cybertruck disrupt Ford and other ute maker loyalists, in the same way the Model 3 has taken hold in its hometown California where it now outsells the popular Honda Accord and is the #2 best-selling car for 2019?
Wood thinks so. “We did a Google trends analysis on the excitement of the Cybertruck relative to the early days of the Model 3…what we’re seeing is the excitement is in the areas you want it to be, in the Mid-west and in the rural areas,” she says.
Bridie Schmidt is associate editor for The Driven, sister site of Renew Economy. She has been writing about electric vehicles since 2018, and has a keen interest in the role that zero-emissions transport has to play in sustainability. She has participated in podcasts such as Download This Show with Marc Fennell and Shirtloads of Science with Karl Kruszelnicki and is co-organiser of the Northern Rivers Electric Vehicle Forum. Bridie also owns a Tesla Model Y and has it available for hire on evee.com.au.