The latest multi-decade planning blueprint for Australia’s main grid points to a critical role in the future power system for homeowners and their cars, but acknowledges that they could do more if consumers trusted the system.
The 2026 Integrated System Plan released last week by the Australian Energy Market Operator predicts that by 2050, up to 80 per cent of all vehicles on the road will be either full battery electric, or plug in hybrids.
By that time, EVs will be consuming more than 60 terrawatt hours of electricity from the grid each year, not far short of what homes consume now. Half of this demand will come from electric road transport. Currently, EVs consume around 1 TWh of electricity a year.
But only around 10 per cent of homes will be able to charge and discharge electricity through vehicle-to-grid technologies, the ISP predicts, largely because of a lack of trust and acceptance in the way that such packages are bundled and co-ordinated by energy retailers.
That means that only around 4.3 gigawatts, and 48.8 gigawatt hours, of storage capacity would be added to the grid from V2G – assuming that a V2G system would not drain a car battery below the halfway point.
Those estimates are a downgrade from the draft version of the ISP, and a shame because – as AEMO points out – virtual power plants and vehicle-to-grid charging of EVs could can respond to market signals and avoid billions of dollars being spent on additional grid scale storage.
“The benefits of CER to all consumers would be increased if CER is bundled and coordinated,” AEMO writes. “Greater community awareness, trust and acceptance is needed for higher levels of coordination to be reached.”
V2G is yet to take off at scale in Australia, largely because car companies are reluctant to extend their warranties to cover its use, and because trials of V2G are still in their early stages, although there are plenty of examples of individuals doing their own thing and using their EVs as batteries on wheels.
The uptake of home batteries is surging across Australia, thanks to generous federal rebates and some state government support, but few of them have chosen to become part of VPPs – apart from in Western Australia where it is a requirement for the rebate.
Still, EVs are expected to be the dominant fuel type by 2050, with the share of EVs in new car sales already tipping 20 per cent because of the recent surge in fuel prices caused by the war in the Middle East, and the choke-point on global supplies in the Strait of Hormuz.
Already, consumers are noticing falling EV prices, greater model choice and availability (assisted by new
vehicle efficiency standards) and more charging infrastructure, and these trends are projected to accelerate
through both domestic and commercial fleets,” the report says.
“By 2050, to meet federal and state targets, up to 80% of all vehicles on the road are forecast to be battery or plug-in EVs.”
It notes that EVs are ideally charged in peak solar daylight hours, avoiding the morning and evening peaks. But AEMO says more chargers are needed at work, in commuter car parks, on the kerbside and along major routes.
“Electric vehicles are no longer just cars that get you from A to B. AEMO is telling us that EVs are becoming part of Australia’s energy system and playing an increasingly important role in supporting the grid,” Electric Vehicle Council CEO Julie Delvecchio said in a statement.
“This is about changing how we think and how we do things. The energy system of the future won’t just be built around big coal and gas generators supplying energy via transmission lines. People will be increasingly at the centre of the energy system by driving EVs which are big batteries on wheels.”
See The Driven’s detailed EV sales data here: Australian electric vehicle sales by month in 2026; by model and by brand.
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