Is the surge in interest in electric vehicles in Australia a one off? Or is it a structural shift? It’s the question top of mind for the car industry here after official data recorded record EV sales in the month of March. But the answer might not be in the official sales figures.
There’s a lot of mostly Japanese car makers that are desperately hoping the sales surge – to a record share of 14.5 per cent – is a one-off, given that they have been thumbing their noses at the EV transition for more than a decade now and are hopelessly ill-prepared for a major structural shift.
“It is too early to determine whether this represents a structural shift in the market,” says Tony Weber, the head of the Federated Chamber of Automotive Industries that has traditionally danced to the tune of the Japanese car giants, but now finds itself also speaking on behalf of a growing number of new Chinese, mostly fully electric, car makers.
The Electric Vehicle Council, which tallies sales for the all electric car makers Tesla and Polestar and lobbies on behalf of the EV industry, is in no doubt that the surge in interest represents a structural shift.
“Volatile global oil markets are changing the conversation,” says EVC head Julie Delvecchio. “Australians aren’t asking whether EVs are the future anymore. They’re asking which one they can get their hands on, and when.”
See The Driven’s full EV sales data here: Australian electric vehicle sales by month in 2026; by model and by brand
And the answer may lie not in the official sales data for March, released in the past week, but what they don’t include – a more than doubling in interest in online searches, a doubling in queries about leasing and insurance, a surge in second hand sales, and what appears to be a record backlog of EV orders.
Buyers of Australia’s most popular EV, the Tesla Model Y, are being told they have to wait until May – or in some cases until August – to get delivery of their chosen variant.
This long wait time has happened before, when Tesla dominated the market and had little competition, but it is striking to note that it is still happening even when it is no longer the biggest seller of EVs (by brand) in the market.
The new number 1 EV brand in Australia is China’s BYD, which sold 4,206 fully electric cars in March, and leads the 2026 count with 9,994 units – well ahead of Tesla’s 7,260. (BYD has six EVs on the market – the Sealion 7, Atto 3, Atto 2, Atto 1, Seal and the Dolphin – compared to Tesla’s two).
BYD now claims to have an order backlog of more than 10,000 units in Australia. It did not break this down into EVs and hybrids, but given that half of its sales last month were full battery electrics, the backlog likely goes for at least one month – and it appears to have an easier path to delivery than many rivals.
Other Chinese car makers are also doing well. Omodo Jaecoo has sold 1,153 of its J5 electric SUVs since its order books opened in late December, and says it has received more than 4,000 orders to date.
Even Toyota is forecasting a five-fold increase in sales of its only fully electric car in Australia, the bZ4X, which recorded 1,041 sales in 2025, and 840 already in the first three months of 2026, including 440 in March.
Toyota now forecasts the bZ4X will achieve more than 5,000 sales in 2026, thanks in part by the expected arrival of the upgraded bZ4X Touring variant in coming months. That would put it into the top 4 best selling EVs for the year, based on 2025 data, although there will be increased competition in 2026.
“In the first three months of the year, Toyota has seen an increase in demand for electrified vehicles – including both battery-electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles,” says Toyota Australia’s Vice President Sales, Marketing and Franchise Operations, John Pappas. But the company is still focused on its hybrid options.
Other car makers are also reporting huge interest. Tesla has promised to increase the rate of deliveries, Polestar says it has seen a tripling in the number of test drives, and Hyundai, VW and Audi have all reported a surge in interest in EVs.
Ultimately, though, whether this is a one-off, a short burst, or a structural shift, may depend on what the federal government decides on its EV policies, including the current discount that provides tax advantages for the purchase of EVs.
The government is busily reducing the tax burden on fossil fuels, and has flagged it will step in to support the coal and gas industries if their costs should rise amid the continuing uncertainty of Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East.
“The Electric Car Discount, currently under review, is making EVs more available than ever before,” EVC’s Delvecchio says. “Removing or scaling it back risks depriving Australians of $3,000 a year in savings on fuel and maintenance costs. With the cost-of-living front of mind for every Australian family, those savings couldn’t be more timely.
“What we’re seeing is a tipping point. The fuel crisis hasn’t created interest in EVs – it’s accelerated a shift that was already underway.”
The leasing lobby agrees. The National Automotive Leasing and Salary Packaging Association (NALSPA) says the fuel crisis, at least for the short term, has turned curiosity into commitment – particularly in outer and regional areas.
“Buying a car is one of the biggest financial commitments a typical household makes,” says Nalspa’s Rohan Martin. “But with the cost of living rising, EVs still carrying a price premium over petrol vehicles, and other barriers to the EV transition remaining, many households simply couldn’t make the switch without the Electric Car Discount.
“The Electric Car Discount makes EVs affordable and within reach for workers today with no upfront cost and payments deducted directly from pre-tax salary – creating immediate cost-of-living relief and long-term savings.”
See The Driven’s EV sales data here:Â Australian electric vehicle sales by month in 2026; by model and by brand
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Giles Parkinson is founder and editor of The Driven, and also edits and founded the Renew Economy and One Step Off The Grid web sites. He has been a journalist for nearly 40 years, is a former business and deputy editor of the Australian Financial Review, and owns a Tesla Model 3.