New research from the University of Exeter, UK, has found that electric trucks are on course to overtake diesel equivalents on lifetime cost, much sooner than expected.
The study also found that coordination between governments on policies such as zero-emissions vehicle mandates could bring the cost parity tipping point forward by up to two and a half years.
“We were surprised by our results – the tipping point is much closer than we expected,” said study lead author Dr Amir Akther, from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute.
“In some regions and vehicle categories – such as heavy- and medium-duty trucks in China, and vans in India and China – electric vehicles are already cheaper over their lifetimes than their diesel counterparts.
“In other regions, cost parity is expected before 2033.”
Around two-thirds of land freight globally is carried by road, and road freight itself is responsible for about 6 per cent of global CO2 emissions.
As reported last week in The Driven, the IEA’s latest EV sales figures predict one in four cars sold globally this year will be electric, with the world on track to hit 40 per cent by 2030.
According to that report, global electric truck sales increased by around 80 per cent in 2024, amounting to almost 2 per cent of all trucks sold worldwide.
It’s a major result driven substantially by a doubling of sales in China, where the cost of electric trucks has pretty much reached parity with diesel equivalents.
“They [China] have a huge advantage in the supply of domestically produced batteries, along with heavily implemented city-level zero emission zones,” explained Akther.
There are now 750 electric truck models available in China, Europe, and North America.
Policy change can accelerate the trend
The researchers used real-world data and models to compare the effectiveness of various policy routes in hastening the transition.
“Regulatory policies, particularly zero-emissions vehicle mandates, but also fleet-wide emissions reduction standards, are generally the most effective way to get electric trucks on the road,” said Akther.
“Subsidies and taxes are less effective on their own, but subsidies can help grow the market for zero-emission vehicles, particularly after some critical demand was met.”
New announcements in Australia, though sector share remains small
It’s been a bumper month for electric truck announcements in Australia.
Last week, freight giant Linfox announced plans to purchase 30 electric prime movers from Volvo, expected to cover between 250 and 300 kilometres per day.
On the same day, Foton Mobility Distribution announced they’d be adding two new electric trucks, on the bigger end of the light-duty spectrum, to market here.
And light-duty vehicles, also known as ‘last mile delivery’ vehicles, account for more than 80 per cent of trucks on Australian roads.
According to the Heavy Vehicle Industry Association, transport will be Australia’s highest emitting industry by 2030, with trucks accounting for about 40 per cent of estimated total transport emissions in that year.