Tesla continues to lead the global EV market, with sales of its Model 3 and Model Y exceeding that of the tiny Wuling Mini EV, which had briefly seized top spot in January, in the first two months of 2021.
With EV production pumping out of its Fremont and Shanghai factories and boosted by its Model Y, which it started delivering in March 2020, Tesla has sold more than triple the number of cars in 2021 to date than that of 2020 in the same period.
According to figures gathered by José Pontes of EV Sales, the Californian EV maker sold more than 73,000 vehicles in January and February, exceeding 2020 by some 50,000 vehicles.
And both bull and bear analysts are predicting a record first quarter for the EV maker – as much as double that of the first quarter 2020 by some.
The EV maker completed its traditional end-of-quarter deliveries ramp up on Wednesday, and is expected to report it has delivered (and therefore counted as a sale) 160,000-174,000 units in the first quarter in coming days, according to analysts.
That’s less than Q4 2020’s 188,000 deliveries, but is still encouraging for what is traditionally a quiet quarter.
On the upper end of predictions is Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, who has a price target of $US950 per share and is betting on $US8.79 billion ($A11.6 billion) in revenue and 174,000 vehicles delivered, 160,000 of which would be Model Y and Model 3 electric cars according to The Street.
This view is echoed at Morgan Stanley, which puts Q1 2021 at 173,800 units and 2021’s total deliveries at 831,200 units.
“In our opinion, given all the noise around potential industry-wide supply constraints we believe any full-year delivery figure in the area of 750k to 800k units is enough to keep both bull and bear satisfied/justified,” the firm wrote in a note to investors.
NEWS: Morgan Stanley has just released a brief $TSLA report:
"What Matters for Tesla Here? 6
• Capacity Expansion
• New Model Unveiling/Ramp.
• SaaS/Mobility transparency.
— Sawyer Merritt 📈🚀 (@SawyerMerritt) March 30, 2021
Tesla analyst Gene Munster of Loup Ventures thinks it will be less than that, saying in a video that, “We think it’s going to be closer to 160,000 vehicles. not to worry because we think the causes of the miss are temporary and should shift into being a longer-term tailwind for the company.”
We're expecting a slight miss for Tesla's March deliveries, which should be out April 1 or 2. We don't see a need to worry, given the near-term headwinds should turn into long-term tailwinds. https://t.co/dtjoYRQJO6
— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) March 30, 2021
Oddly enough, and as noted by Teslarati, Gordon L. Johnon of GLJ Research who holds a $US67 price target thinks Tesla will meet its December deliveries of 188,000 units.
Bridie Schmidt is lead reporter for The Driven, sister site of Renew Economy. She specialises in writing about new technology and has been writing about electric vehicles for two years. She has a keen interest in the role that zero emissions transport has to play in sustainability and is co-organiser of the Northern Rivers Electric Vehicle Forum.