General Motors aims for 5 million electric vehicle sales by 2030

US automotive giant General Motors is expecting global electric vehicle sales of 1 million by the middle of this decade, but new research suggests that while the company will only meet half of that target by 2026, it will see EV sales skyrocket to 5 million by 2030.

A report published this week by global energy research group Wood Mackenzie analysed GM’s current and future share of the EV market, and its future relevancy in a dramatically expanding market.

Currently, GM’s primary EV markets are North America and China, as well as a strong but significantly less competitive market share in South America.

However, despite the fact that the European Union is the second-largest EV market in the world – expected to account for 25% of global EV sales by 2026 – GM sold its European brands back in 2017 due to declining sales and profits, exiting the regional market entirely.

According to Wood Mackenzie, for GM to achieve its target of 1 million annual EV sales by 2026, it must win 30% of the US EV market and 16% of the Chinese EV market – as compared to its current market shares of 4.5% and 6.7% respectively.

GM’s challenge is further compounded by the fact that 17% of its current sales come from pick-up trucks – a segment that Wood Mackenzie does not believe will electrify as quickly as passenger cars.

“GM’s target would entail capturing 12% of global EV market share by 2026,” said Ram Chandrasekaran, Wood Mackenzie Principal Analyst. “This will be challenging, particularly given its notable absence from the EU.

“Despite this, GM does have a clear-cut strategy towards electrification. It has divested from plug-in hybrids, with 90% of its EV sales coming from battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Earlier this year, GM announced a further $20 billion investment for new electric and autonomous vehicles.”

GM’s plan for delivering on its EV targets included its March commitment to invest $US20 billion by 2025 in electric and automated vehicles. The investment was combined with the company’s plans to decrease the number of powertrain combinations and move towards a module electric vehicle components focus.

“The modular electric drive platform is designed to fit vehicles of different classes,” said Wood Mackenzie’s Chandrasekaran. “GM claims it will have a battery control unit at a module level, which can lead to more cost-effective repairs. The chemistry of the battery packs will be NCMA, therefore improving costs further by reducing cobalt by up to 70%.

“However, neither the platform nor the battery technology is ground-breaking.”

GM’s plans also dovetail around its Ultium Cells joint venture with South Korean chemical company, LG Chem, which saw construction begin in May on the future site of the Ultium battery cell manufacturing facility in Lordstown, Ohio.

Together, GM and LG Chem are investing $US2.3 billion in the new joint venture which they hope “will use the most advanced manufacturing processes all under one roof” to produce cells efficiently and benefit from strong economies of scale.

“With this investment, Ohio and its highly capable workforce will play a key role in our journey toward a world with zero emissions,” said GM Chairman and CEO Mary Barra, speaking in December 2019.

“Combining our manufacturing expertise with LG Chem’s leading battery-cell technology will help accelerate our pursuit of an all-electric future. We look forward to collaborating with LG Chem on future cell technologies that will continue to improve the value we deliver to our customers.”

“If completed, this would be one of the largest battery manufacturing facilities in the world,” added Chandrasekaran. “The factory is intended to supply packs for GM’s electric pick-up trucks to be sold in the US. Initial planned capacity is 30 GWh, however the plant will be built with future expansion in mind.”